Well, as predicted the shit has hit the fan and the Ukraine people are paying the price for their trust in the USA.
NATO and the EU are accomplices by default.
After the speech of Putin yesterday in which he appeared calm and collected I revised on that new evidence my earlier assessment. This should be done following proper scientific R&D procedures.
It only then dawned on me that Putin probably would have known beforehand that the western world was giving him a middle finger. Of this, he of course learned via his intelligence agencies. Well-informed sources as contacts and rumors that will have been circling in Munich. That strikes someone whose greatest desire is esteem, very hard and makes him very angry. That was the first reassessment.
The second reassessment concerns the severity of the sanctions concerning the position of Putin in being able to stay in power. I had taken what was stated by some politicians to be true that it hit Putin’s oligarch power base of ‘Billionaire Barons’ hard, as a fact. Clearly, that wasn’t as yet the case. As soon as that is the case however NATO, the EU blunders into the danger zone of a very short ultimatum of a war declaration.
The parameters that I gave in Putin’s plan C still hold true.
Yesterday Putin stated in a calm and collected way that he would like to negotiate, this was subsequently and predictably rejected. Putin is playing the criminal chess game brilliantly.
NATO, the EU, and Biden are only logically comprehensibly playing a window dressing game.
Putin knows that when he is forced to call the bluff of NATO via an ultimatum and real negotiations start he will probably only get what he via force has taken. So he is only in a hurry in so far the sanctions don’t hit his power base too hard. That is difficult for me, or actually, anyone (!), to assess. Yet very dangerous when miscalculations are made in that respect. All the more so that actually nobody knows when Billionaire Barons start to panic. They too are humans under great mental stress.
It’s a balance between lust for more power and money versus a belief that Putin will fail when pushing NATO towards a war. For that indeed might just happen that NATO changes its mind and will start to fight over Ukraine even though a pledge not to do so. Yet much more probable is that they when push comes to shove will throw in the towel.
The fact at play is the Russian military doctrine on the use of nuclear weapons. That is for us inconceivable to communicate in our democratic system. One of the building blocks of blundering us into WW3.
On the other hand, it is like the middle ages all over again. Putin the tsar like King and his Russian Billionaire Barons Evil “Friends” will try to team up with the wannabe Ukrainian Billionaire “friends” to become even more filthy rich eating the carcass of a democratic nation Ukraine.
Helped by default by NATO and the EU.
Mind, the deeper reason why NATO and the EU fail is that we have the same dysfunctional economic Ponzi style dysfunctional political system as Russia has. A system we as a ‘DNA survival trait gone wrong’ honestly are convinced is the best there is. In a way that is really true for it is indeed the most refined and conning. Yet it is also fundamentally wrong. This is because it is a winner-takes-all thus win-lose system. Under mounting mental pressure the Ingo Piepers thermodynamics of war algorithm kicks in as a result.
Suicidal amok will ensue.
Traumatic feelings of guilt and shame prevent us from doing anything else than choosing scapegoats and making window dressing. Until we by miscalculation end up in nuclear winter.
Is there no way out? Yes, stop the sanctions and force real negotiations on to Putin. And indeed give Putin all he up to that point has grabbed. If you don’t he will grab it all.
He won’t if NATO subsequently guarantees the new borders.
That will also put the Baron Billionaires in their place and thus also Putin. The longer it takes the more difficult and costly the mistake of NATO and the EU becomes. As soon as this is done the nuclear umbrella of NATO protects Ukraine’s new borders.
An umbrella that is in dire need of serious fixing all the same.