History repeating itself by blundering into WW3.

Breaching the nuclear & oracle senate test taboo

8 minute read 22-07-06 & small edit 22-07-07 extra prediction

Why can’t humanity learn in time to learn from history proper?

• Don’t deal with mobsters via appeasement. Churchill Dixit.
• Speak softly and carry a big stick. Roosevelt Dixit.
• Same sense: “We had to choose between dishonour and war, we chose dishonour, we’ll have war!” Same sense: When you are afraid of (nuclear) war, you’ll get (nuclear) war. Stare down deterrence.
• Same sense: Always build your opponent a golden bridge way out. Sun Tsu Dixit.
• Beware of the industrial-military complex. Eisenhower Dixit. They profit off a long war.
• Strive towards complete consistency via balance through Bildung. Prevent war or win a short war. Emergency breaks all laws except the ten most fundamental laws. Ris Dixit.
• Don’t Pester. Ris & Bertrand Russell in so many words Dixit.

Ten Most Fundamental new ‘Break-one-you-break-all’ twist of old school Laws of Humanity balancing act via Bildung. A summary of the post on my blog.

Art. 1 Completeness vs. Incompleteness (Old school i.e. philosophy of Bertrand Russell)

Art. 2 Normality vs. Abnormality (Old school)

Art. 3 Proof vs. Disproof  (Game Changer Newly Defined Old school Bayes)

Art. 4 Order vs. Disorder (A radically new twist to the Old school, the game Changer Block Model: formation, deformation, transformation, destruction, unique reformation life cycles.)

Art. 5 Fact vs. Logic Proven Best Practice Fiction (Old school)

Art. 6 Freedom vs Discipline (Old school)

Art. 7 Due Timing Too soon vs. too late (Old school)

Art. 8 Course on Goal:  Strong straight interactive force (Old school)

Art. 9 Go with the Flow:  Weak bending interactive force (Old school)

Art. 10 Due Equality vs. Due Inequality (Old school)

Logical Consequence:

Science is the decent systematic search for all the laws of everything and all-inclusive Bildung.   

Pseudo-science is in breach of this and causes thus anti-scientific world wars with the potential of extinction.

Anyone is challenged to pose * valid * falsification.

Denial is not a valid falsification.

Democratic statistical modelling is not a valid falsification.

Strong taboo feelings of disproval are not valid disproof however large the group majority.

Stating that any of this such as the Block Model is unclear you require an optician. I’ve shown how to perform the test. Then there is either idiocy and/or hypnotics at play as a survival trait that blocks the brain into taboo. The latter can only be dealt with via an authority as seen by that brain.

Mastered fear is a good advisor, uncontrolled fear is a bad advisor.

Only any inconsistent data including logical inconsistencies are valid falsifications requiring remodeling or disproof. Disproof via evidence-based reasoning of incomplete or incorrectly interpreted data.

Applying two of the ‘break-one-you-break-all’ most fundamental rules of humanity.

Art. 4 Order:  All (most) humans – myself included – are different sorts of deep incurable healthy idiots. That can only learn to deal with that by indirectly checking via a self-test to be just that. The moral duty of any human is to investigate properly in order not to even unwittingly pester anyone. Only by teaming up correctly can humanity learn to use the collective brain correctly.

Art. 5 Facts: My versus (Most if not all) Other Analysts’ predictions on Putin (Xi) & Ukraine :

• Military Analysts & Politicians: What Russia will and will not do is the correct focus. To contain war in Ukraine we need economic sanctions against oligarchs.

• Ris since before the war as proven in this blog: Not what “Russians” want but what Putin, as a mobster wants, is the correct focus. Economic sanctions won’t hit Putin but his people and work counterproductive for also hitting the world economy and thus ourselves. The catalyst of the thermodynamics of war is in the first place economic imbalance. Putin only wants to stay in power. Putin only wants esteem. Only Putin’s oligarch power base is a direct danger to him. The better economic success of former Warsaw Pact states as a mild neo-liberal kleptocracy is a danger to the blunt Putin mobster-style kleptocracy.

Fact: most politicians and military analysts now start seeing that it’s mobster Putin as the correct focus. And that they thus were wrong in talking about what “Russia” wants. Now alas most politicians focus on their perceived success in more international cooperation against Putin than anyone had expected.  A mobster that is prepared to use brutal Stalinist methods even against Oligarchs and their families by murdering them, will use extreme force to get his way when cornered. Already some cracks are visible in the political unity now that the sanctions are also felt by the voters. The real test of the West’s resolve on Ukraine is yet to come. Nobody knows how that will turn out.

RULES SCOREBOARD FACTS

Akin a game of football a scoreboard is in order. Score Ris 2 points Putin wants to stay in power and only wants esteem. Versus analysts 3 times shooting in their own goal.  Economic sanctions don’t influence Putin, hit the wrong people including ourselves that will start to split the unity.

You only get points on important issues that were predicted the longest before the fact. And you lose all points when any such prediction has failed to show true. Predictions are always given as conditional probabilities.

The reason for a zero-point rule is that errors in this field of preventing WW3 are errors of the highest order. A deadly sin made by living dead zombies that are unwittingly blundering humanity and themselves into WW3. Zero points!

Scoreboard: Ris 5 Rest 0.

• Ris stating even before 2022: Putin will attack Ukraine via Belarus after the Olympics. Timing on behest of mobster Xi, who has the same economic problem as a danger to his position as Putin to be solved via a focus on external war Taiwan.

• Military Analysts & Politicians: Just before the attack started to wake up and go on record, some were even vehemently in denial the day before the attack even.

• Total score adds another 5-0 becomes 10-0 in my favor.
• Military analysts: Russia 100% troops in February required to grasp all of Ukraine gathered so the attack concerns all of Ukraine and in the long run Russia wants to push back NATO in so doing restore the former sphere of influence of the Soviet Union. Putin and Xi bluffing concerning any possible use of nukes. And the Russians will probably quickly win. The USA provided Zelensky an escape into exile. Also thus believing Ukraine would crumble. Not willing to uphold their pledge to support Ukraine after giving up their nukes.

• Ris: The first attack will be a raid to topple the “clown” in the eyes of Putin Zelensky to install a puppet regime. Indeed Putin wants the whole of Ukraine as at least a vassal state, best of course in time annexation also of Belarus. Yet Putin won’t attack all of Ukraine in the initial assault. The most important goal is the annexation of Donbas and the route to including Crimea and freshwater as part of Russia. The possible outcome of the military conflict is inherently unpredictable by all sides. So too is any power struggle in the Kremlin unpredictable even for Putin. Putin and Xi are not bluffing concerning the possible use of nukes. De-escalating tactical nuke strike in which a nuclear counter-strike is unlikely. Military policy. See RAND rapport 2019 & Henry Kissinger. Xi is testing the resolve of Biden. Putin will send forces to the border of the Baltic states, especially Kaliningrad, and hope to threaten NATO into neutrality. If NATO doesn’t go neutral then after a false flag attack, especially the pincer movement connecting towards Kaliningrad will ensue. Only such an action makes NATO have valid military targets. And a small tactical nuke most probably on Maasvlakte Harbour near Rotterdam is then most probable. That harbor is then a valid military target. All gains in the Baltic states are a bargaining chip. However, the condition for that attack wasn’t met due to the extremely more wet and muddy conditions than expected in February. This made this attack impossible. For then providing NATO a de-escalating tactical nuke strike for the mud forcing the Russians to bunch up. Also, NATO was much stronger than Ukraine’s forces so an attack there bound to the roads was deemed impossible by Putin. The latter is a far-average fast-thinking authoritarian autistic narcissist akin to Donald Trump and Napoleon Bonaparte. As such not per se a mental disorder but in extreme tunnel vision. Incapable of assessing risks for surrounded by yes-men. Seeing the atrocious weather my prediction of the move towards the Baltic states was off. That was my prediction before the war started. Those forces earmarked for the Baltic would do nothing.

• Facts: of the 100% assembled Russian forces only 30%  were used in the initial attack consistent with my predictions. 20% usual reserves. 50% too many assembled forces proving the goal was had it not been so muddy toward the Baltic states. A raid analog at the attack of the Germans on Holland in May 1940 trying to grab our government and quickly kick an assumed weak party out of the game. And indeed only the primary goals were attacked. Being forced by Xi to attack out of season due to Marshall Mud tank columns confined to roads are easy prey.  The predictions on the military outcome were a surprise to all for even Putin got it wrong. As did all the professional military analysts predicting a quick win for the Russians. The chief intelligence officer of Macron got fired for predicting that Russia wouldn’t attack. Well, Macron only got to hear what the leader wants to hear. (The same story with “weapons of mass destruction” and Georg W. Bush attacking Saddam Hussein.) During the NATO summit, Putin attacked a shopping mall in Kyiv and a no doubt scripted parliament member implied that Rotterdam harbor should be attacked as a military target. I made no predictions on the military outcome. Yet contrary to the military analysts predicted the first strike on Donbas and the route toward Crimea including water as the thrust toward Kiyv. Rest of my predictions on the use of nukes still pending.

Total score from 10-0 to now 20-0 in my favor. Rotterdam harbor being explicitly mentioned as a military target adds one to now 21 predictions that have come true. Noone as far as I’m aware has got all that correct by going on record.

STILL STANDING PREDICTIONS 

• Most analysts and politicians predict a long war that won’t go nuclear at all for then it would end in Armageddon. Apart from that the Russian system doesn’t only have one person of Putin able to start going nuclear. They predict a settlement in which Ukraine will be divided and  Russia will gain ground or the Donbas become an independent state with access to Crimea that will get water. The hope and guess that Putin will be toppled when the economic sanctions really start to hurt.

• Ris: I predicted and still predict that Putin when having reached the end of his tether either politically or militarily will most probably hit near Lviv with a small tactical nuke. That is a military logistical hub near NATO and far away from Moscow. What the exact true procedure is to start using tactical and or strategic nuclear weapons is, is never really certain. Yet an ex-KGB mobster capo di capo mobster Putin will get his way when he needs that. Sudden heart attacks or car crashes of those in doubt of their boss Putin come to mind. Then Putin will pick up the hotline and phone Biden. “Will you become neutral?” Or, “must I escalate?” As I showed in the post on Napoleon attempted suicide after his first forced abdication and Trump during his forced by the voter’s exit, these personality types act like mental even suicidal toddlers when their esteem is put in danger.

NEW PREDICTIONS

My new predictions: Seeing the latest developments of Putin grabbing the whole of Luhansk Oblast, I guess Putin might still be able to mount an Ardennes-type offensive using preferred weapons such as the vaunted T14 Armata tank or other weapons still hidden and kept in reserve. Yet probably he has indeed none. Nobody knows how the logistics and funding or morale of the military and Russian and Ukrainian people will hold out. Are the new weapons that Ukraine is getting too little too late? If indeed Putin has no more men and munitions the Russians will need a pause of maybe even a month. If at all possible the Russian army will want to keep up the momentum. That is difficult when supply lines are constantly under threat by partisan actions and the like. Anyway, only a few cities still stand in the way of grabbing the whole of Donbas. Cities can work as garrisoned forts of old. The stand at Mariupol springs to mind. But these might be different seeing the history of 2014.  As stated all the time, the war and the Kremlin are black boxes to which I make and made no predictions. I only made and make predictions about what Putin will and won’t do. Of course, if the West at any stage forces Zelensky into a deal in which say Donbas becomes an independent state towards Crimea and the latter a part of Russia. Say in return, Ukraine becomes NATO and EU member. Then Putin got what he wants. True except for one important thing……. Is the West then going to lift the sanctions?

Well, I predict that the economic sanctions will in time topple Putin. A leader can only prevent his people from rising in discontent during a prolonged war, as long as he doesn’t lose that war. Putin has shied away from mobilization for a reason. Putin is a desperado who knows that being toppled will most probably kill him. So indeed if the West stops the sanctions and weapon deliveries before Putin nukes then indeed Putin won’t nuke. Otherwise, Putin has no other win option. Mobsters always go for the win-option in extreme tunnel vision. Mobster talk is always implicit. Conclusions victims draw themselves are the strongest convictions.

Edit extra prediction. If by nuking near Lviv Putin doesn’t get what he wants and needs i.e. a neutral NATO or a golden bridge way out, then he via an easy false flag attack by NATO on Kaliningrad can directly go on to nuke Maasvlakte near Rotterdam. “L’état cést moi” logic of this defacto dictator. He won’t warn again! He’ll just do it. For that is what desperado mobsters always prove to do. Putin will escalate if NATO doesn’t react correctly. Putin otherwise believes to be dead anyway. Inherent with desperadoes. Again there is only one way out that will prevent WW3. That BTW doesn’t have to go nuclear either. The same situation as the fear of gas attacks didn’t materialize in WW 2. The potential weakness of the West lies in keeping the alliances together and not falling for the divide and rule trap. Just now is also not the best of times to have a change of power in Downing street 10 either. Boris was as a PM the one that grasped to have to play hardball with Putin. Macron grasped the need for a Golden bridge way out. And Biden doesn’t quite know how to act. Somebody might take it on to themselves to get this shit in order by explaining it directly or indirectly to them. End edit.

I’ve studied the history of war and modern weapons since I was four years old and had a decent military library already in high school. Most if not all generals military analysts and politicians don’t have both the military and criminal hands-on experience that I’ve got over thirty years in dealing with mobsters. And a tank driver and being a Dutch Gepard radar operating AA gunner. Most officers haven’t a clue what different sorts of tanks exactly can and can’t do in different sorts of terrain. And also involved in the logistics of the mess hall of a brigade. This all during the cold war training on what to do in case of a nuclear attack. Most mobsters started as small mobsters and took their trade to higher levels. KGB made a study of how to do this in a fully professional way. So being lucky guesswork it is not. Here is a picture of part of my library as a high school kid. I was born in 1960 and went into the army as a conscript in 1981.

The only ones gaining from the self-fulfilling prediction of a long war is the industrial-military complex. The latter is seen by politicians as the experts. Yet they are hypnotically even in the expert press religiously hypnotized to state what the politicians want to hear. Any use of nukes is taboo. Conditioned as they all are to only and directly think in terms of Mutual Assured Destruction MAD.  This stems from the time that the KGB forerunners of Putin in the DDR financed the anti-nuclear protests. Effectively making it a taboo subject for all military personnel, military analysts, and even the military press who want to make a career. Simple voters don’t want to hear about nukes. Politicians decide who becomes general. Generals decide who of the press or analysts they want to talk to.

Proof: Well see here what I found in a recent version on the topic in the library of NIMH (Dutch institute on the military history of the ministry of defense.) A copy of magazines that I have a lot of. Here you see the conclusion. After a complete analysis of the weaponry, they conclude that any use of nukes by Putin would automatically end in mutually assured destruction. Not a word is stated as to why that would be. Even though they do mention the de-escalating nuclear strike policy. Buy a copy and see for yourself.

I saw the magazine Air Power whilst I was doing historic research on the Dutch urgency program of the then Chief of Staff general Reynders in 1937. The unpublished bit of the multi-volume series on the military part of the war. This is unpublished due to the death of the author Nierstrasz.  Added to that that the current British Army chief recently stated: Ukraine is our ‘1937 moment’. Well, I make it now somewhere between Dr. Ingo Piepers 2022 (1939) and indeed 2024 before WW3 that has already us fighting in it, really going hot.

I predict due to the changed situation it has become apparent even to Putin, and his successors that his military is a shambles for the years to come. So that Russia is not so much a direct threat anymore for the moment other than nuclear. That is not what the industrial-military complex wants to hear. Yet, I state that the real military danger at the moment is China with Xi. So yes, the West needs to restore the military balance especially by restoring the nuclear balance covering all of NATO asap. Mobsters like Xi and Putin will take extreme tunnel-visioned risks to exploit such evident shortcomings when their positions become threatened.

The problem is that by not neutralizing the ex-KGB mobsters we now have a destabilized nuclear mobster state with a lot of rich minerals and a mineral-hungry mobster state China of Xi that is also in economic meltdown. Wanting, therefore, focus diverted via a war on Taiwan.

Giving in to Putin, by Biden will start off Xi. Expecting then that the same will happen, whereas that might not be so.  

Where, how, and when this WW3 that has already started with us fighting in it since 911 is going to get really hot for us in the West is inherently unpredictable. Taiwan? Africa? Former Yugoslavia? Somewhere else that nobody is paying attention to?

I predict the only safe way to get out of this mess is, to threaten Putin with NATO air power also on the air to ground in Ukraine. AFTER having built him a Golden Bridge way out as the modern monarch that only has ceremonial powers as Tsar Putin I. Or of course any other golden bridge that is acceptable to Putin. The old-school way of solving these sorts of problems that have proven to work in the past. As I’ve found out several times in practice as a former DA, it also works with smaller and larger mobsters.  Good-cop-bad-cop.

Then get rid of all the ex-KGB monsters of whose existence I wasn’t aware at first. We don’t want a Putin mark I supplanted by a Putin mk. II. Also curtailing the rich oligarchs. Let the new Russia with a new Oracle Senate test become an EU and NATO member. Subsequently by paying their entrance fee by giving their nukes and production rights thereof to the new EU Oracle Senate. Simply change the name of the EU to the Free Federation of States. With the extra proviso that Russia may not leave the EU as a potential nuclear state.

Via the New Oracle Senate preventing a yes-men culture in Russia but also for the Macrons and Bushes of the world everyone including our leaders will get durable truly independent and truly well-informed timely advice on all important issues.

That will for the time being stabilize the world military balance and also put Xi on the right track towards becoming emperor of China as a modern monarch to be. In so doing this also stabilizes the world economy and puts that also on the right track of learning how to organize proper worldwide group think.

I predict thus that Peace in a Day is a Piece of Cake.  

Mind a prediction done by someone who knows what he’s talking about, who studied the situation has many years of hands-on experience, and who shows a 20 to 0 scoreboard on the relevant items that come to play.