3 minute read
On September 12th 2022 Times Radio had three interesting interviews:
All three were asked to address part of the nuclear problem that I posted on Times Radio several times before.
Former British Army major general officer (IMO excellent) logistics expert Tim Cross. “Putin cannot afford to lose this otherwise the danger is he will lose power. And there are people around him who are harder on the aggressive end of the spectrum than he is.” He states to know for a fact that his plan of Zelensky was a spring offensive. Yet, seeing that the EU especially Italy and Hungary, and others are not going to back support Ukraine when Putin weaponizes winter gas. Blocking the gas flow would stop the military aid. That is why the offensive has been pushed forward.
A must-listen assessment fully in line with what I’ve been saying all along.
A new twist for me now again for the use of tactical nukes.
Due to this need for Putin to stop the Ukrainian momentum, I need to change my assessment that a de-escalating nuke strike by Putin near Lviv. The latter now might be less likely. Now one in an indeed military tactical way might also be needed to stop Ukraine from crossing the natural boundary waterway they have reached – unexpectedly by maybe everybody including Zelensky – when Ukraine is keeping momentum. The latter was due to having routed the Russian army.
But I guess the Ukrainians have already reached their culmination point. Needing to stop anyway to regroup and equip. They need to prepare to stop a possible counter-attack and not overextend by outpacing their supply lines. This is with the danger of exposing their flanks to a counter-attack.
Journalist Askold Krushelnycky, Believes it to be as much a surprise to Ukraine as to the Russians that the Russians collapsed and thus that Ukraine needs to consolidate.
Frank Ledwidge, a former military officer, and senior university fellow who asked about the nuclear option don’t think that likely. Although he doesn’t say why believing I guess to be stating the obvious. Nor does he see a mobilization of Russian forces providing any military solution for Russia shortly. Indeed no one does think the latter. Yet it might provide Putin with a temporary political solution as well as a political problem with his people.
Yet, I would state it would show that Putin is still the boss. And, pull the situation over the winter and check the resolve of all NATO and EU members from being cut off from gas.
All these experts point toward the culmination point of any offense like I’ve done.
Nothing new these are standard military maxims as Tim Cross points out in a very clear way. Namely overstretching the lines of supply and opening up vulnerable flanks to counter attacks by Russians.
Tim, as I do points out that speculation here is very dangerous. What you can say however are certain maxims, that historically nigh always hold.
That’s all I’ve done on this blog up until now with still a 100% score. Also on all that that is inherently unpredictable and predicting that unpredictability.
Knowing via my model robot Putin as the dictator I can indeed and have predicted what he in given circumstances will and will not do. The Kremlin and the fog of war on the battlefield are predictably unpredictable. I was right from the start there as well. For Christians, it’s even in the Bible. David can win from Goliath. Yet, he must watch his step, for losing is still also a possibility or even probable when not keeping the fine balance Tim also points out.
Askold Krushelnycky
Major geneal Tim Cross
Frank Ledwidge
Western leadership has failed and is leading us into the abyss.
Predictions were published on February 8th * before * the war. Experts are now seriously talking about the use of nuclear weapons when Putin is no longer to be seen as a winner but as a cornered rat. A desperado. Of course, as long as Putin is seen as a winner, by his oligarch peer group, he won’t have to go nuclear.
I stated from the start that the economic sanctions would not only not work, but would be counter-productive. Hitting everyone including ourselves and the world economy, which collapsed is at the bloody heart of the problem.
In this post, I predicted that the main thrust would be on the Baltic states after the Olympics. Just before that attack due to a way too wet February before the start, I changed my prediction. I didn’t of course predict the weather of Marschall Mudd intervening. Putin didn’t use all his forces but only 30% in the initial assault * exactly * as I predicted! No general will ever do that unless forced to.
As far as I can see I’m the * only * expert that went on public record with such a 100% score.