Written by Gerhard Ris
December 9th 2022
A 17-minute read
PREDICTING THE PREDICTABLE
That World War 3 is coming and will be worse than WW1 & WW2 is valid for a reliable 99.9% probability prediction. Alas, this scares the shit out of most who then chose to deploy ostrich politics and stop analyzing and organizing.
This WW3 is predictable because simply the trend of history repeating itself that way, with better means to kill each other.
The problem is that my model proves best practice that only the fastest thinking Delta personality type highly gifted idiots are best at such predictions. An essential talent of only 1% of humanity. These types are the artistically creative ones. They are of course there because this is a survival trait. In a way, one percent is quite a lot given now 8 billion earthlings.
Only by showing the track record can this be proven.
The 1% Gamma types are also quite good at this out-of-the-set-theory box artistic thinking. Yet the Gamma types are best at spirituality. I.e. making the inherent unsettling the current state of affairs causing taboos palatable. Unless religiously already biased these two types are the open-minded types that stand open to new ways of thought.
However, these inherent taboo ideas scare the shit out of especially the other 2% of humanity that is authentically authoritarian and thus better populists to the other 6% of the total 10% fastest thinkers of humanity. That 6% are the potentially humble leaders of humanity, who mostly in our current society don’t lead but follow.
Even under these fastest thinking, 10% of humanity that should as a > 90% truth have a practical university level education under high mental pressure, as is for > 99.9% reliable exact scientific truth:
20% of Saturn algorithm authoritarian types lose emotional control (i.e. go mad) when they don’t get what they deem to be respected. These are 50/50 Alpha/ Beta. The simple CM robotics of the model are explained elsewhere on my blog.
60% of Rings-of-us algorithm types go mad when no certainty is given. These are 50/50 Alpha/ Beta.
10% of Venus algorithm types go mad when no freedom of relationship is given. These are all Gammas.
10% Mars algorithm goes mad when no freedom of thought is given. These are all Deltas.
The Gammas and the Deltas know how uncertain all science mostly is. However, given that 60% of humanity including many if not most scientists go mad with uncertainty, humanity has a problem. This is the reason why using the jargon of this model Delta R&D, and Gamma marketing and advertisement departments should be dealt with in a safe environment as open as possible and closed as needed.
Alphas are relatively deep idiots on abstract logic, especially set theory.
Betas are relatively deep idiots concerning all new paradoxes such as irony, dynamic set theory, complex geometry, complex reasoning, astronomy, rheology, air combat, climate change, etc.
Gammas and Deltas are relatively deep idiots going by the book. Yet so good at out-of-the-box guesswork that it seems 80% good going by the book to a >99.9% correct going by the Alpha and Beta book types.
The simple logical misuse of a hypnotic survival trait trick is to scare the 60% of the also scientists that have the humble personality trait. They go mad when they can’t be sold with certainty that they understand. Going by the book. The latter is something you can reckon with via accurate evermore narcissistic calculus. When an ever more never before observed changing biotope is at play, it logically requires artistic and spiritual leadership by composers and playwrights to conjure up new ways that work.
Alphas and Betas can only conjure up new ways that don’t work when the problem is an out-of-the-set-theory box type of problem. Alphas and Betas can only solve in-the-set-theory-box type problems successfully in new ways. In the latter Gammas and Betas more often than Alphas and Betas will go idiotically astray. The * only * solution is to organize good cooperation with all four main groups.
I have now a few yet-to-be-published proofs of my model of authentic authoritarian Betas and Alphas making a string of idiotic hilarious fallacies. Constantly making a hash out of the set theories involved. I will publish that later probably in an anonymous way. I need to confront them first with the proof. We don’t need a scapegoating type of solution, in which these individuals are proven to be idiots because we all are idiots. We need a systematic change.
PESTERING AND WW3
As Albert Einstein stated you only understand something when you can explain it to a six-year-old.
Well, if we don’t want a world war then don’t pester. Mind, that attempted pestering is also pestering. Pestering is when people needlessly go mad. In this model, the wise judge has no loopholes in the law on important issues. The problem is this non-pestering can only be guaranteed when the team personality types are well organized.
The paradox is that giving freedom of speech in a Wikipedia-style way will be felt by the 20% of best populists of humanity as pestering, whereas it’s not because it is essential. Taboos must be dealt with behind closed doors under threat of dealing with it in open debate.
Going mad on a debate on taboos is emotional blackmail and thus illegal pestering.
Hysterical wokeness is pestering. Autistic narcissism is pestering via emotional blackmail. It is due to their inherent idiocy that they * prove * to be unable to pose a proper argument.
It’s a mostly unwitting powerplay of the authoritarian Alpha and Beta type minority wanting to hold on to their populist power.
Even when you’re a Gamma or Delta, never let even very strong gut feelings have you lose emotional control or allow you to try and ignore what the point is. The point is the way out of World War 3.
MY TRACK RECORD
I predicted the scenario we are in concerning the Taiwan conflict and Ukraine war correctly since 2015 and the presentation of this in 2017. Anyway in my blog since the end of 2021, the proof is obvious I predicted 23 (actually more, because they can be split out into more) predictions with a 100% score. All based on what robot Putin would do given correctly proven predicted to be unpredictable changing circumstances.
The latter is proven to be unclear to most Alphas and Betas. It’s proof of their deep idiocy.
To try and explain this to a six-year-old. Robot Putin is surrounded by set theory boxes that are all unpredictable. Only after the Jack-in-the-box has popped out does my prediction count on what robot Putin will probably for 99.9% do or not do.
To give a more concrete example when Putin wins he will not, and when he loses he will probably try to push the nuclear button. Whether Putin will win or lose is predictably highly unpredictable. The latter necessity of predicting the unpredictable will be dealt with below.
Mind, this is in my field of more than thirty years of experience in courtrooms as a lawyer magistrate and before that study of war in a semi-professional way and service as a conscript AA-gunner/tank driver.
I’m the * only * military and criminal expert I know of having done that based on a given model of the brain and robot Putin.
PREDICTING THE UNPREDICTABLE
When, where, and how World War 3 will come about is inherently unpredictable.
Even now I can’t yet prove Dr. Ingo Piepers wrong with his claim that WW3 will ultimately erupt in 2022. Yet, as stated before his basis seems much too small to make such a precise prediction. This is probably still true even when WW3 does erupt in 2022. I’d have to check all of Ingo’s data which I haven’t done. My model only strengthens Ingo’s correct analysis that we are in silence before the WW3 storm.
Nuclear winter is the greatest threat to humanity, and that is predictable. Whether that wintery Armageddon comes about in the now pending WW3, is unpredictable. One or two nukes in WW3 doesn’t make humanity go extinct.
The religious belief that Armageddon will certainly be the case after the first nuke is dropped is extremely dangerous!
It prevents acting rationally by blocking the thought process, even in a group. For I intuitively guess Armageddon will more probably come about in WW4.
Following my model WW3 can be prevented indefinitely when humanity learns to organize effective non-pestering. Which is easy and fast were it not religiously taboo.
All predictions in Pandora’s box after the nuke has been thrown are about the inherently unpredictable. Thus this latter part is unreliable. Given not a pinch, but a bag of salt these highly unreliable predictions can and must be made. That is a paradox. For they provide insights into how to cover our arses. Humanity must get rid of these nuclear weapons a.s.a.p. yet at the same time keep the military, including nuclear arms, balanced. The latter is needed until the state of well-organized global non-pestering is reached. Only then can nukes be safely abolished.
EXPLAINING RELIABILITY BANDWIDTHS
Most people nowadays are acquainted with curves in weather forecasts. The reliability bandwidths are usually given. When they are narrow then the weather is certainly for say 99.9% reliable probability within the given narrow bandwidth. Say no more than 2o C off stating most probably a maximum of 1oC during daylight. The bandwidth could also be much wider when the forecast is unpredictable because the weather is unstable. The prediction average of 1oC with a bandwidth of say 10oC. I.e. it could be freezing -9oC as well. Thus have warm clothing at hand to cover your arse. The weather could even be volatile.
Mind, “volatile” means it can go extremely well or extremely bad or anything in between, but most probably bad. Volatile means a loss of required control. The latter is only very bad when the system actually could be kept within humanity’s span of control. Sometimes Mother Nature becomes volatile when a volcano erupts outside the span of human control. (My model shows that in time (a long time, if ever) it might be possible to get all including super-vulcanos under human control.)
The volatile situation concerning Putin and Ukraine has been correctly predicted by me to become much worse during this year. This volatile situation is of our human nature caused by witting and mostly unwittingly pestering. It is thus inherently within our span of human control to get this back under control, by getting our heads out of our arses. Every human has this power, that requires you to keep your strong gut feelings on a leash. Learn to keep your horses back via Bildung. Learn to train your brain independently.
BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT
With the new benefit of hindsight, had NATO done from the start what I advised we would no longer have been in this ever-increasing human volatility. At the start, hardly anyone was taking a nuclear threat seriously and deeming it more as obvious bluffing by Putin. Now a majority of the Dutch people and most military experts are talking a great deal about the very time explicitly stressing * little * chance of the use of tactical nukes.
Alas, and indeed for the time being, and provided the Russian forces don’t suddenly collapse, the chances of the Russians going nuclear has resided. Yet, in the somewhat longer run after the winter the chances of this war going nuclear have risen sharply.
Understanding this requires some prior knowledge of nuclear weapons.
Indeed the probability of tactical * i.e. battlefield use * of nukes in Ukraine is small, provided the Russian front doesn’t suddenly collapse. This is something I also constantly pointed out.
Mind, tactical small versus strategic long-range large nukes is often misunderstood. “Tactical” means for use on the battlefield. I.e. use of nukes to stabilize a short-term “tactical” problem on the battlefield. Requiring quite a lot of “small” nuclear devices to do. The nuke on Hiroshima was a “small” 15-kiloton bomb akin to the current tactical nukes. Because war is politics via other means all nuke use is also extremely political. “Political” is mostly strategic in the long-term sense of the word.
What is evidently very wrong and mishandled by most (ex-) military in the media is that there is also a strategic use possible of small nukes.
Say a strike on Maashaven Holland or hopefully now more likely a nuke on the Dutch windmills in the North sea.
Things have indeed changed. Why this scenario is most probable now when Russia doesn’t win I’ll explain below.
The most hopeful scenario is however that some leaders finally get their heads out of their areses and start heeding my urgent advice. Then there will most probably be no WW3 or nukes at all. Peace in a day is a piece of cake. As stated before all military experts need to be ashamed of themselves for not having vehemently argued * also in the media * that NATO should build Putin and his mobsters a bitter pill Golden Bridge way out.
Legally speaking these military experts have made and are making professional errors of the highest order. They should know Sun Tzu’s the Art of War to be correct. In law, such errors are dealt with in disciplinary and civil court cases. Leading to disciplinary punishment and paying of damages.
POLITICAL SOLUTION OPTIONS
Firing off all nukes would solve the problem of getting rid of all nukes and possible global warming as it would solve overpopulation. Let us agree that this is not to be a preferred solution.
This seemingly uncanny magic of well-educated guesswork is the job of personality types like me. Types like Leonardo da Vinci aren’t mad nor are they Homo Universalis geniuses. We’re all fragile and fallible idiots and all potentially highly gifted on only 1/1000th of the gameplay board of life. Simply common sense.
There still is a win-win way out.
THE NOW-JUST FEAR OF NUCLEAR WINTER BREAKS THE TABOO OF THE CURRENT PARADIGM
And a reassessment of the current situation of the war in Ukraine.
Most Dutch justifiably fear a nuclear war. With more luck than wisdom, we Dutch haven’t been nuked by Putin. In February Putin’s plan to nuke Maasvlakte Holland if NATO didn’t act neutral failed due to the mud, and the gas pipeline attack was a failed attempt by Putin to have the Duma and military top brass agree on a quick annexation of parts of Ukraine as a prelude to nuke most probably Maasvlakte.
Proof: the strange way the annexation of parts of Ukraine came about in stark contrast to the annexation of Crimea.
First off a shorthand summary of what I predicted on my blog.
100% of my 23 (actually more when fully split out) predictions about what robot Putin would do have come true. Proving a track record that no other military analyst to my knowledge even comes close to. All thanks to my block model. I predicted from the start that Putin’s biotope in the Kremlin and fortunes of war are inherently unpredictable. I was proven correct. Also, I predicted that Putin only has to care about his oligarch power base peer group. The latter has materialized for when a mobster boss becomes seen as a loser, then the dictator will no longer be unopposed or even disposed of. The more dove-like mobsters no doubt have started to oppose Putin by a bomb attack on his Rasputin Dugin. Sending a clear signal to stop the danger to their mobster interests Slavic shit. As I predicted the only thing Putin cares about is Putin when push comes to shove. The same I predicted about the mobsters acting like barons in the middle ages. They don’t care about Russia becoming poor and bankrupt as long as they stay on top. Mobsters that are no longer able to travel abroad and lose precious yachts won’t care. Easy come easy go. Yet will predictably be vengeful. Putin has been forced to bow his head to the demands of the more dove-like mobsters. This shows in the strange legal way in which the annexation came about. Only after the premature “formal” annexation by Putin, the Duma agreed. Legally it should be the other way around. The Duma agrees and the head of state Putin puts the law into formal effect. The evacuation of Kherson being now part of motherland Russia and my predicted minimum victory do or die for Putin point, was not in the style of Putin. Putin’s style is a Stalingrad street fighting akin to Stalin and Hitler. The more military sensible tactical withdrawal shows the doves have a greater say now and thus control over the idiotic previous micromanagement of the war by Putin. This withdrawal * from a key city Kherson * makes Putin look like a very weak leader. I guess also that the more hawk-like Wagner mobsters will be stonewalled by Putin trying to win Bakhmut. Or any mobster might play them against opposing mobsters. Bakhmut is militarily unimportant but very important politically. Also Ukraine, they rather deal with the doves than the Wagner hawk mobsters taking the lead in Russia. A Verdun-type strategy of trying to bleed the opponent to death would be stupid on the part of Ukraine. For they bleed as well in human cost as in material, by running out of ammo. Downgrading Wagner group their claims to be the only winners in this war is the politics at play here. Wagner obviously is trying to play up the importance of Bahamut. Inherently very murky gameplay, which is thus very volatile.
The “doves” first want to test the West’s resolve over the winter. NATO’s armories are drying up and the will of the West this winter to have the doves forced Putin to weaponize food and energy first before going nuclear.
The predictions of what Putin would want to do remains just as strong. The evidence of this now that the dove-like mobsters have come into play makes predictions much more unreliable. I simply don’t have all the evidence I do have on robot Putin concerning the other robots involved. No one has the evidence to a sufficient degree.
When Putin was seen by everyone as the big successful boss it was easy to make reliable predictions on what robot Putin would and wouldn’t do given the unpredictable outcome of his actions. Now that these outcomes show him more and more to be the loser. Then others predicted by me out of his peer group will inherently come into play. Now that has happened, the influence of Putin and thus the predictability of not so much Putin will want to do but what Russia will do becomes more separated. In other words, last February had the ground been frozen solid then Putin would have put 50% of assembled forces, that now stood idle in the initial attack on Ukraine due to the mud, towards mainly Kaliningrad. Had NATO not declared and acted neutral then Putin would no doubt have most probably successfully pushed the nuke button.
Predictably Putin still wants to play that game. His problem in the changed situation is that he no longer can successfully push the nuke button.
THE NEW PROBLEM
Even the Dove mobsters can’t negotiate away parts of Russia.
Maybe they might at a point try and win an internal power struggle with the more hard-line factions. They could try to get rid of Putin and scapegoat Putin and the hardliners such as Dugin and the Wagner group et al. Yet, it’s hard to see how they could successfully sell giving away parts of what they have now declared to be the Holy Motherland Russia. They too have now placed themselves with their backs to the wall.
Giving away parts of now annexed Russia might lead to civil war in Russia. That’s all the world needs now. A civil war between mobsters in a state with one of the strongest nuclear arsenals in the world. (For autistic people reading this, this is sarcasm.) A situation of the making by a blundering NATO et al.
What the world needs is a stable Russia without mobsters.
Baring such internal struggles turning hot the dove-type mobsters are now committed. They all, including Putin, will then justifiably fear being disposed of and sentenced to death. Akin Sadam Hussein etc. The idiotic NATO strategy of sending weapons and trying to prevent WW3 by economic sanctions that as I predicted has proven to work counterproductive. Having aggravated the problem of a global economic meltdown. That meltdown is the bloody predicted core problem in the first place of dictators opting for the military option.
As predicted Xi and Putin first cooperated with Xi being the dominant partner. (Akin Hitler and Stalin cooperating to grab Poland.) Yet Xi has now distanced himself from Putin, for Putin is shown to be the loser. Furthermore, Xi has grasped even more formal totalitarian power in China. Akin to Putin mobster Xi only needs to worry about his oligarch power base. The internal powder keg on corona and the semi-uprising against the lockdown might have him also start becoming desperate and doing stupid things toward Taiwan. Highly volatile and thus predictably unpredictable.
One might hope that both Xi and his power base have noticed the risks involved when starting to fight against western weapon technology and economic might. Especially when the West might still show to stand together. (As long as that indeed holds.) The internal power play is a black box to everyone including Xi.
However, now via my block model exact-scientific prediction on human robotics at play:
Under pressure, narcissistic autistic rulers go into idiotic tunnel vision honestly believing that they will be successful, whilst gambling as a suicidal idiot. Xi and Putin are simply idiots at all paradoxes such as irony and complex dynamic reasoning. They * always * will go by * their* infantile religious book, which was proven to work in the past. Even when the biotope has changed and the book is thus out of date. Which is easy to observe for those with that DNA Delta talent. Only a minority of artistic DNA talent and Bildung and time to think can observe the new unique scenario composition we all are in.
History only repeats itself when not looking too closely via tunnel vision.
Only Deltas with the correct artistic talent to compose the music of this highly complex dynamics at play as a small thin redline in the host of conflicting data view this the best. Mind, my score is still 100%.
Forty percent of the population including justifiable scientists in the soft science sector simply can’t compute the abstract logic at the required level. This group of Alpha personality type hysterics is 80% female and 20%, male. This gender-neutral female logic can be tested as a > 99% truth in a society that is sane, by the 60% of humanity, including all the slowest thinkers. Even well-trained mentally healthy hysterics are idiots at even the most simple forms of abstract logic that they have never come across before.
Alphas may not claim any authority on anything of which they can’t show that they have at least a majority consensus in all four main groups.
Because my model has not received valid falsification it may in due process of the completely consistent rules lawfully be taken as a fact. Only valid falsification that has been sought ex Karl Popper, could make this different. It is thus everyone’s elementary human right to call out all personality types in a respectful way. This can be done by simply checking anyone’s past track record. Non-cooperation is an attempted pestering and thus can be ignored. As objective as stating that someone is a red heard female if someone presents themselves that way isn’t disrespectful per se. That they are not a redhead but have died their hair is for them to communicate.
Another forty percent of the population including justifiable scientists in the exact sciences can’t compute paradoxes such as all never heard of the use of irony, human concrete behavior (which is inherently ironic), and complex dynamic interactive geometry. Proper probabilistic reasoning is properly dealing with dynamic interactive set theory. This is totally beyond Beta types that become autistic when losing emotional control.
The same rule for alphas applies to the Beta and everybody else. No one can claim any authority on any important subject when they can’t show it to be the product of a proper proceeding conforming to the Grand Law of Everything.
That requires showing * at least a majority in each of all four * Alpha, Beta, Gamma, and Delta personality, groups.
The latter is for governments * only * possible to organize in a new Oracle Senate.
A NEW UPDATED PREDICTION ON THE MOST PROBABLE NUCLEAR SCENARIO WHEN RUSSIA LOSES
The most probable scenario is when Russia doesn’t get all its territory back after this winter or when the Russian forces collapse at any moment. Putin this time supported by his dovelike mobsters puts his plan to go nuclear into effect. A false flag attack by NATO on Kaliningrad stated this as a reprisal for the gas pipe attack.
The most probable attack, now that NATO is alert, will be a Kinzhal nuke hypersonic missile fired by a Mig-31 jet over the Baltic. Putting a 100-kilo ton warhead air burst over Maasvlakte harbour. Nothing NATO can do to shoot that down. NATO won’t dare before that to start shooting down any Russian warplane over the Baltic.
I however hope that the more dove-like mobsters can have Putin agree to only attack the Dutch windmills in the North Sea, as a sufficient shock and awe with less of a chance of a nuclear response by NATO.
It’s explicitly the Russian doctrine to de-escalate into proper negotiations.
UNDERSTANDING UNRELIABLE PREDICTIONS
Of course, this type of prediction doesn’t hold the same claim of probative value as the other predictions. The more precise my predictions are, the lower the claimed probative values become. I.e. that Putin’s ceteris paribus would attack Ukraine after the Olympics was a >99.9% probative value claim. This claim of Putin and now all of his mobsters going nuclear * unless they win, or get toppled, or the Martians, etc. land * is also a > 99.9% claim.
That Putin will attack Maasvlakte in this way is a > 50% claimed probative value. He might for technical reasons choose to use a different target. Or for political reasons want to use a different yield and thus nuke system. Say want to use only a 10kt nuke and thus be forced to attack near a German port.
The only thing they need is sufficient shock and awe by proving that Putin is and was not bluffing when threatening to go nuclear.
Then Putin will certainly plan to phone Biden and then Putin asks if Biden wants to have Armageddon. I hope that Biden will then act wisely and indeed do what he should have done all along. Yet I must doubt it. For when knowing that this scenario is going to happen for > 99.9% certainty then Biden is a criminally insane idiot.
With the new benefit of hindsight had Biden done what I advised even before the war the risk of a World War 3 would have been much smaller than 1%. Now the risk is way higher.
Anyway, what the hell is NATO et al doing in helping Ukraine free the annexed territories if you are afraid of starting WW3? When NATO wants to stay out of it, well then stay out of it and tell Zelensky he should accept the annexation by Russia. And in return grant what remains of Ukraine as an EU & NATO member.
If Putin and his thugs win the minimum goal of getting all claimed annexed lands then NATO has mostly lost. This goal can only be won by Putin if NATO lets that happen. NATO has caused global and internal political for hefty economic instability. The latter will let conflicts flair up all over the place. Calling a victory that part of Ukraine can then become NATO including Sweden and Finland isn’t a recipe for lasting peace.
Mobsters are then still in power in Russia a very much weakened and thus highly unstable nuclear power. Morbid cancer that a mobster state will go on permeating the globe to reap riches. Helping dictators to stay in power such as in Syria.
Predictably somewhere along the line, this will spiral even further out of control.
All my predictions after Putin honestly believing that he will come out on top without Armageddon has indeed successfully pressed the nuke button, are of course highly uncertain. Putin then opened Pandora’s box. Stating to believe that Putin won’t dare press the nuke button is utter criminal insane idiocy. Believing that leaders such as Biden or Angela Merkel know best and won’t make idiotic mistakes don’t know the recent history.
Angela Merkel has been duped by the Russians with the North Stream gas pipeline. Cheap for Germany and cut out Ukraine. Trump warned Merkel many times, even explicitly and correctly, not to go ahead with the pipeline. At the same time stopping all nuclear energy. Germany has gone mad. The pro-nature anti-nuclear Green lobby in Germany got themselves into a probable nuclear war. Angela Merkel and these pro-nature Greens are proven to be idiots. They were told beforehand that these dangers were there. That is clear idiocy when it indeed for the very reasons stated goes horribly wrong.
Time for me to claim and everyone else to admit that this taboo subject of a test of Senators for life is in fact no longer taboo. A fact in the sense that discussing this is no longer committing political suicide.
AGAIN:
BY SIMPLY * DECIDING * BY ANY AUTHORITY IN THE WORLD TO DO MY PROPOSED * TEST * OF AN ORACLE SENATE THE REQUIRED PARADIGM SHIFT WILL BE A FACT. THINGS WILL QUICKLY AND HOPEFULLY IN THE NICK OF TIME STABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY TO AVERT FURTHER DISASTER. NOT WELL UNDERSTOOD MASS HYPNOTIC SURVIVAL TRAIT POSITIVE PYRAMIDE GAME AT PLAY.
Note on the claimed exact scientific probative value: it’s a prediction akin to the first flight of a new prototype aircraft completely built out of tested parts. More than 99.9% old school much proven to work old school parts and only less than 0.19% new tested by me stuff that has a great track record and a deterministic logical explanation showing the causal effect of the statistics. Ergo, proper scientific procedure conforms to the laws that have been correctly formulated and defined.
Check it all out on my blog. This ping-back needs to be updated, so use the menu for the latest posts.