Published August 10th, 2024 Gerhard Ris

Taking this video analysis as a fact, it’s clear that Ukraine has planned more than a slight raid into Russia properly. Cleverly, they do not state the objective so they can’t lose because they can still claim it was a mere raid to lessen the pressure on other parts of their front. Putin only has bad options for him apart from the one I’ve warned for since before the start of the war.

I agree with this analysis in this video including as more and more military analysts now finally are waking up to the nuclear threat. Yet Paul again only addresses the possibility of what tactical or even heaver nukes will do tactically on the battlefield. Indeed that won’t be of great military value.

Still, Paul too like nearly all military analysts doesn’t grasp Sun Tzu and Von Clausewitz. Namely, that war is the continuation of politics with other means. And that war is bad politics for NATO because predictably unpredictable.

As I warned before the war this war isn’t about what Russia or NATO want but what the respective oligarchs do and don’t want. Putin’s only justified fear is of losing power via a coup by his mobster power base akin to the coup of Wagner by Prigozhin. As my blog proves beyond reasonable doubt Putin twice already tried to go nuclear by false flag use of small tactical nukes on a strategic goal of nuking NATO into neutrality.

Akin to the Russian military banking on Ukraine not using NATO equipment and regular Ukrainian forces to invade Russia proper which they now have done, the Ukrainians are banking on Russia not going nuclear. Well, this again provides Putin with the chance to reactivate his initial plan. The reality dangerous fight is now going on behind the closed doors of the Kremlin between the oligarchs and Putin.

A long war that was forced on Putin after his failed gas pipe ploy is a danger to Putin who like any mobster boss needs to show to be successful. What Paul in his analysis fails to note is that Putin now has the option to nuke his forces and claim it was a Ukrainian tactical nuke in a false flag operation. The idea that “no one” will believe that is beside the point. First of all the Russian people will believe what they are told and secondly, all anti-NATO countries leaders will state to believe that as well as will their people.  Anyway, whether that is true or not is also beside the point. This is the way mobsters think and work as Putin and Prigozhin have time and again proven and of which I warned.

So, keeping it simple nuke part of your own forces in Russia proper claim it was Ukraine who managed to make the bomb, and have Putin phone Biden blaming NATO. If NATO then doesn’t go neutral on Ukraine attack the Kaliningrad gap in a false flag maneuver and play the nuclear false flag by NATO game I mentioned earlier nuking uninhabited Maasvlakte harbour Holland when article 5 NATO has been forced on NATO. Then threaten Biden to nuke Hamburg next.

The only thing preventing this is the perception of the oligarch quasi-nuclear doves in the Duma and military top in Russia. They will weigh their options. Take Putin out with a chance of a civil war? Probably they will opt to continue the long war against Ukraine betting that they will win in the long run come Trump or Harris which is indeed true. Russian arms production is at the moment not really hampered by the sanctions nor is the way of life of the oligarchs akin I predicted before the war that the economic sanctions not only won’t work but will be counterproductive.

However, the perception of the oligarchs might be that the West is more and more prepared to go all the way and that they might indeed otherwise lose the war and face an uprising that will endanger them more than going along with Putin’s prior plan * to which the before the war * they as oligarchs were forced to agree on.

See this FaceBook group that still generates likes on my blog post from just before the war on February 8th, 2022 predicting correctly what would happen. Forces going through Belarus for an attack, not at Kyiv other than a commando raid but towards Kaliningrad after the Olympics. After learning that the ground contrary to what was expected wasn’t frozen solid but muddy I changed the prediction Putin’s plan failed yet played out as predicted only using 30% of his forces with the predicted commando raid on Kiyv that failed. Mind, Pridgozhin sent his Wagner forces toward the (better called) Kaliningrad gap.

https://grisblog180460.wordpress.com/2022/02/08/free-our-leaders-from-their-focus-slavery/?fbclid=IwY2xjawEkFZtleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHbSTNX292ccTZUj9kH6E0l5ERo-LQICmjFjHW14jQGARm0UZKUIc5ZaoOA_aem_cKHPzSGVr8yXg3nX7cCdvA