Published July 30th, 2023 5-minute read

Several sources state that Ukraine has started its big push. One can but hope that the leaking of the critical internal German critique on the Ukrainians for not correctly using the many weapons NATO and others have provided in the wrong manner has politically forced Zelensky to act rashly.

On Times radio Major General Rupert Jones, on the 26th gave a nuanced and balanced assessment of the situation.

Ukraine is trying to push without a critical component of combined arms warfare. Airpower.  Being judgemental is thus unfair. Especially by the Germans who have been the masters of too little too late.

As I stated on the 26th in the comment to this link, it reminds me of the problem Air Chief Marshall Stuffy Dowding had during the Battle of Brittain. (My comment can’t be viewed via this link I don’t know why.) With hindsight, Stuffy played the correct strategic chess game by not going for the all-or-nothing Big-wing tactics that Douglas Bader advocated in a very vociferous way. It could have quickly lost him the battle.

Due to simply staying in the fight, the Germans having switched to bombing London, thought they were winning. Only then to be confronted with Bader’s Big-wing of many planes. Thereby, the Germans lost faith in the venture. This solidified the illusion that had Stuffy done this sooner the Battle of Brittain would have been won sooner. Which is simply not probable as too dangerous because of unnecessary risk. You can only afford to play big when the relative balance warrants it. Which it only did thanks to Stuffy.

Now let us assume Ukraine has been forced to launch the big push too soon without the essential air power and doesn’t succeed. Then indeed the oligarch mobsters in the Duma et al will claim to have been proven correct that they will probably win a long war against NATO. If indeed akin to NATO in Afghanistan at any later moment throws in the towel then Ukraine will probably not be able to do anything else than start a guerilla war. This then lack of resolve by NATO will cause problems with China and the rest of the dictators in the world. It will then predictably spiral further and further out of control.

But what if indeed Ukraine with this Big Push breaks thru the Russian lines towards the coast?

This is where Prigozjin comes in who clearly desperately wants to try to make amends with Putin by playing the game that his then-good friend Putin clearly had planned in February 2022. Had the ground then as was to be expected been frozen solid Putin had wanted to place 50% of his forces where the Wagner troops are now. As predicted by me he wanted to do.  Which prediction I immediately withdrew, after finding out that due to heavy rains Marshall Mudd had intervened. The mud made the required spread-out tank formation that was essential for Putin’s plan to work impossible. Putin couldn’t underestimate NATO when attacking the Kaliningrad gap. It’s a fact he only attacked using 30% of assembled forces. 20% tactical reserve is normal and not 70% especially when there is no reason not to immediately deploy these. A situation like D-Day 1944 where it was simply logistically impossible to deploy all the required forces on D-Day doesn’t apply here. Had the Allies been able to land all 100% of the forces needed for the start of the campaign they would have done so on D-day.

A variation of this deception plan by Putin was played out by Putin after he had been made aware of the gas pipe attack plan by Ukraine. That plan probably stemmed from a Donald Trump-type CIA plan to blow up the pipe. The plan was stopped by Zellensky and had probably become known to Putin by the ones still in favor of that plan. A nice way to enforce reason to stop the costly business of aiding Ukraine when Ukraine attacks NATO. The Dutch intelligence services had found out about the plan and warned the USA  now under Biden. Of course, Biden and Zelensky are against such a plan.

Now that the Duma and military oligarchs have agreed on the annexation of further parts of Ukraine in a tradeoff in which Putin is forced to play the long war against his will, all Russian Oligarch mobsters have become committed desperados.

They all not without reason will believe that they will either be killed or serve life sentences when they don’t win this war.

In my thirty years of experience with smaller and larger mobsters as a lawyer, penal judge, and DA I’ve never seen mobsters not double down on their even suicidal gambles. This is tunnel vision and blotting out all reasonable assessments of things going wrong.  The paradox (meaning seeming contradiction) is that they indeed just for that reason often get away with it. Akin that Hitler got away with the Rhineland, annexing Austria, the Sudenetland, invading Czechoslovakia. Ultimately the shit hit the fan in Poland.

Everyone in NATO believes Putin is bluffing whereas it’s quite the opposite. NATO is bluffing and in mobster lingo showing weakness.

If indeed Ukraine breaks thru, then Putin will back Wagner to do a false flag conventional attack on the Kaliningrad gap. Whether this is successful or not doesn’t matter for Putin. Al he needs is a scenario in which he can state that NATO used nukes first. His own people and the peoples of the world who hate NATO will keenly agree that NATO nuked first. And, furthermore after having nuked probably Maasvlakte harbour in Holland as a stated retaliation for the nuke on Kaliningrad. Then he phones Biden threatening to nuke other harbours such as Hamburg if NATO doesn’t act neutral. Whatever scenario unfolds who will subsequently care about the question if it was a false flag attack or not? Indeed, no one.  

I’m still getting likes on Facebook for this blog post from before the war.

https://www.facebook.com/groups/672977016479933

https://risadvies.nl/free-our-leaders-from-their-focus-slavery/ published February 8th, 2022 predicting exactly correctly that Putin would only try to quickly attack Kyiv with commandos because his main forces would go toward the baltic states. Which is what Wagner is now doing.  And, that the attack would commence after the Olympics. The main thrust along the coast and water for Crimea apart from the Donbas. Which indeed is now annexed.  It shows the solution as the way out of this mess as well. Then I didn’t yet know that the forces of Putin were so bad because I correctly predicted the predictability of David winning over Goliath or vice versa as unpredictable.

The main problem remains that most mathematicians and physicists being the most intelligent and thus fastest thinkers suffer like Putin from gender-neutral male logic.  

A paradox for these very influential oligarch groups as part of 40% of humanity that all suffer from his male logic idiocy is that they use the term paradox as meaning an enigma. They simply can’t compute if it will show to be an illusion or a paradox as a seeming contradiction.  The latter is the peer review of the Oxford Dictionary definition for use in elementary schools, courts of law, and elementary, meaning most fundamental, science. My model shows that the rules i.e. the laws of Nature including human nature are simple. Indeed a seeming contradiction akin to the rules of chess that are simple but the game of chess is unfathomably complex.

It is thus illegal for mathematics teachers and indeed all of mathematics to define paradox as an enigma. It must systematically be defined as a seeming contradiction. Seems untrue yet is true.

Also, all of the slowest thinkers as part of 60% of mostly female humanity have a talent for irony. Via training for simple irony, they all can easily detect that indeed most mathematicians, physicists, and Putin and Angela Merkel don’t have any talent for irony.  And are thus not tob e seen as having * ANY * authority on issues concerning paradoxes as seeming contradictions. No authority thus in astronomy, rheology, human paradoxical behavior, and language. Even though they are best with computers and algebra their geometry sucks. Complex dynamic interactive inherently paradoxical reasoning and interpretation especially when it’s out of the set theory box are deeply idiotic.

Only when everybody easily starts to recognize all idiocies including everyone’s inherent own idiocy can the pestering be made to stop.

Don’t fall for the AI computer trap. Computers either have inherent garbage in biases. And when quantum computers indeed start to outplay us humans, which might have already happened then we will be in a Terminator scenario. The cosmos is alive yet not as we know it.