Putin will after these harsh sanctions probably be in a panic.
For it is indeed illogical to his mind that performing acts of war, as he sees these sanctions, is fully contradictory to also at the same time explicitly stating “Not to want a fight over Ukraine.”
The NATO and the EU don’t understand the autistic pure logic and the narcissistic tunnel vision of Putin.
As stated in my previous post, Putin’s plan A of sending tanks to the border of the Baltic states got frustrated via the Olympic timetable and the mud of meltwater and rain.
His last resentfull speech was full of anger and frustration that NATO and the EU don’t understand his mobster talk.
The beauty of that plan A was that it was a signal that NATO and the EU would finally understand.
His plan B timetable has now by a very firm resolve of NATO, the EU, and even Australia also been thwarted. Al the more clear due to explicitly targeting his oligarch powerbase. This now brings yet another thwarted plan into his tiny tunnel vision usually inducing a panic. This is especially the case with narcissists.
We, first of all, know this from history. Hitler was distraught after the declaration of war due to Poland, and all the more so when he finally knew that all indeed was lost. The same goes for Donald Trump after grasping he had lost the elections and Napoleon Bonaparte making a suicide attempt after his first forced abdication. Yet this is also current psychiatry which actually should be psychology. I’ve come across this sort of behavior in several penal cases as a former lawyer, judge, and D.A. as I also have in real life.
You get behavior like you get when telling a narcissist straight to his face that he has been disinherited. Especially so when he has been counting on this and the disappointment comes into tunnel vision. Then a complete erratic murdering of the victim by stabbing twenty times can ensue. After that cool collected behavior resumes clearing up the mess. In effect, this is seen as all the more psychopathic when it becomes clear that the narcissist was given clear signals, that he would indeed be disinherited, that most people would understand. The reason why this isn’t seen as a mental disorder in my model is that playing a sick bleeding fish in front of a hungry hammerhead shark doesn’t provide any evidence that that shark has a mental disorder. Neither is the shark a sociopath. It’s proof of a sick society Catch 22 problem. Sharks are part of nature and all the more so they are produced in sick societies. Society needs to learn to recognize them and know and train everybody how to deal with them. The mental disorder is with those people who get a gutwrenching stomachache of traumatic feelings of shame and guilt when grasping their own role in upholding the sick society causing the problem in the first place. Read what Bertrand Russell stated on that when this crisis is over.
The problem this entails is that NATO and the EU are blundering us into a war this way, for it is not the way towards real negotiations. Quite the contrary they, have now nearly lost all possibility in doing so. And thus they have lost all of Ukraine to Putin. Probably again provoking a very dirty civil war. Something they have been doing over and over again. This stems from their blind zombie-like illusion of not understanding their real self-interest.
This puts Putin into top gear on his timetable. He’s probably in a better position to beat possible moves of oligarchs that would want to dispose of him, to the punch.
Putin’s plan C, today or tomorrow when he has collected himself again, will probably be to declare a state of emergency and become a dictator. Subsequently, he declares war on NATO and the EU if they don’t declare themselves neutral the next day. This by not continuing acts of war like imposing any sanctions at all. (I guess, for if he’s wise, he’ll not mention Australia.)
He will again mention “nuclear ashes”!!!!!!!!!! And he’s NOT bluffing!!!!!! Learn mobster talk or die!
Then the bluff ball is back in the court of the EU and NATO.
Then they may choose a quick or a slow route to nuclear winter or one in which they finally register that they have been bluffing all the time and declare neutrality.
Consequence of having botched it.
Putin will topple the government of Ukraine and put a puppet regime in power to fight a dirty civil war in which he backs that regime with air power. Only Ukrainians end up in a lot of body bags.
Oh, and by the way, the nuclear timetable thanks to NATO and the EU is now only a few days after which Putin will do a de-escalating nuclear strike on any in his eyes military target in non-nuclear-weapon holding NATO countries. His bloody acknowledged military doctrine!
Because of his very visible agonized and aggressive vengeful state of mind even before the harsh sanctions and due to being on top of Putin’s shitlist for having branded him a terrorist leader in the MH 17 trial, that target is most probably the uninhabited Maasvlakte near Rotterdam in Holland.
So thanks NATO and EU for your intergalactic stupidity!
· Permalink
Rubbish. Putin is losing it. His backers know it. He will soon be eliminated. The West is doing exactly the right thing. Most of it, at least. The UK have to stop hosting Russian kleptocrats. It was a nice business model for the Tory party but it’s got to stop.
· Permalink
I hope you’re right. Yet it’s a silly bet for you to leave it to some oligarchs to maybe with the help of the CIA MI5 murder the former KGB bugger. Yet if Putin beats them to the punch then Ukraine is probably lost. Like Libya, Afghanistan etc., etc. Ukraine will end up in a civil war. A war that Putin won’t have to fight with boots on the ground.
· Permalink
So what? Shit happens. I think that right now, the West is behaving pretty smartly. There’s nothing I can do about it, either. Better notation panic but just keep a close eye on things. Watch the Russian TV and the American TV, amongst others. Talk to people about it on FB and other social media. Fortunately I have not invested deeply in a theory according to which I and I alone have the solution to the greatest problems facing mankind, but unfortunately have not yet been able to sell it to anyone significant. So I sleep well at night and only worry about the problems where I might be able to be useful.
· Permalink
Moreover, the leaders of the NATO and the EU perfectly understand the autistic “logic” and narcissistic tunnel vision of Putin. A “logic” based on a fantasy fairy-tale picture of Mother Russia. His psychology has been very nicely discussed and dissected by lots of people. Because of his power, his entourage no longer dare contradict him. But they can see, and the world can see, that he’s looking very like Ceausescu near the end of his reign.
· Permalink
*notation
Should be “not”
· Permalink
Another serious error that NATO and the EU have made is in creating the danger of not only creating a civil war in Ukraine but also potentially even more dangerous for everyone creating a civil war in Russia. This is when two factions start fighting for power. Again Russia is a nuclear power for crying out loud.
· Permalink
The problem with the current way this problem is analyzed is that it compares it indeed to Ceausescu and mostly before that the Sudetenland crises and appeasement.
Yet that comparison fails. In those cases, there were no nukes involved. That is the game-changer everyone blocks out in denial for the unthinkable. Well, that’s the strength of a narcissist they honestly believe in their tunnel vision that the unthinkable won’t happen. Until it does……
· Permalink