June 22, 2023, 6 minute read
My list with definitions is nearing completion and I hope to publish it in two weeks’ time. Quite a lot of new insights, yet that will become a never-ending story when I don’t cut this short. I’ve already made some 800 elementary (most fundamental) definitions. The main goal is to use it as a tool to prevent pestering and thus war.
My Facebook post of February 15th, 2022 some days before the war on the Facebook group “What Europe Does for Me” still gets likes. Now reaching the thirty likes mark. It provided a link to my blog post “Free Our Leaders From Their Focus Slavery”
This doodle graphic from before the war shows the tunnel vision fear of nuclear war that indeed makes that fear come true more probable.
This is where we were on March 16th, 2023. WW3 has indeed as predicted broken out in 2022. Our leaders are still in denial.
In this 2022 blog post, I predicted before the war that the Ukraine war was going to break out after the Olympics. This prediction was based on an Axis-style pact with Xi. I pointed out that the oligarch-style war is in fact between the oligarch power base of Putin and that in the West.
A NATO rapport also noted that the Covid pandemic caused predicted by me years before that a global economic crisis would lead to wars. The reason is that dictatorial leaders like Hitler, Xi, and Putin must be successful toward their oligarch power base. Or they will be disposed of. When having invested heavily in weapons then that is the clear way to shift focus hoping to gain a victory.
The more than 23 provisional predictions I made about what Putin would do have all come true. That the attack on Kyiv would not be in force but a commando strike was done in this post for the first time. That came true, as did the thus also prediction that Putin would not commit all his forces to Ukraine. Any general would commit 100% of the forces, including a 20% tactical reserve. Had the Allies been able to land all such 100% on D-Day 1944 they of course would have. Logistically impossible. Yet, there is no reason for Putin when he thinks he can take the entire Ukraine in a day akin to the Germans trying to grab our Queen and government in 1940 to indeed try to do so from the start towards the main objectives. Nor did the Germans in 1940. Putin wanted to send 50% of his forces toward the Baltic states in a NATO-neutral nuke scenario. His * only * perceivable win scenario.
As soon as I learned that the ground wasn’t frozen solid in the Baltic I predicted that this plan was off. Marshall Mud had intervened. Only 30% of the initial forces of Putin were committed.
As predicted when not successful the oligarchs will start curtailing Putin’s power. The prediction that Putin will try to go nuclear when he thinks he will otherwise lose the war and be toppled and killed still holds true. This is probably also true for most if not all his oligarch mobsters. They will have the same fear. I’ve far less information on how this will play out.
Now let’s look at the scenario we are in at the moment from NATO et al perspective. They clearly also thought that Russia (actually to be more precise they should have said Putin) would win. I correctly predicted this to be unpredictable whether David would win over Goliath or vice versa. This still remains unpredictable in a reliable way. This is due to the fact that politics in all countries that are involved are inherently unpredictable. As is the war as such. Yet given this inherent unreliability it’s rational to go thru the most probable scenarios.
I still hold the attack on the gas pipeline as most probably done by Putin. This was part of his second attempt to nuke NATO into neutrality. His oligarchs intervened and forced Putin to play the long war scenario.
Recent information has come to light that the Dutch MIVD (military intelligence) warned the CIA that the Ukrainians were planning an attack on the gas pipeline in a way in which it indeed happened. Happened after the CIA had warned Zelensky not to do such an attack.
In the past, I’ve been wrong about believing that the French secret service couldn’t have been so stupid as to blow up the Rainbow Warrior. Well, I was indeed wrong.
I can’t believe that Zelensky, Biden, or the Ukrainian secret service after the war started could be so daft as to commit such an act especially after the CIA had warned them.
What I can believe, however, is that Donald Trump, when he was still president, had the CIA instruct the Ukraine secret service to blow it up. What I also can believe is that there are still idiots in the CIA who want the military and financial aid to Ukraine to stop. So, they provided the intell to Putin’s FSB. For the FSB doing a false flag isn’t that difficult. Ukrainian ship using non-Russian explosives etc.
Ukrainian General Valery Zaluzhny who was to run the gas pipe attack, dropped the mission after the USA warned them not to do such an attack.
Anyway, this also strengthens the Russian oligarchs and even Putin to play the long war game. At the moment the Western oligarch industrial military complex as do the Russian oligarchs hope to gain from a long war.
As Sun Tzu in his Art of War states no country ever benefits from a long war.
Oligarchs such as politicians aren’t countries and thus have other forces that drive what they think and do.
On the incalculable risk that the Russian forces might collapse and thus Putin’s plan of nuking NATO into neutrality comes into effect is intergalactically stupid by NATO. (In short, a false flag on Kaliningrad as reprisal for the gas pipe attack, (now a new twist namely that later proved via again a false flag done by the Ukrainians) by NATO first conventional then a nuke on Maasvlakte Holland and then Putin phones Biden and threatens to nuke Hamburg when NATO doesn’t act neutral.)
Our NATO politicians are banking on the following scenario. Under the guise that they don’t want to escalate and that they are not involved in sending weapons and other backing to Ukraine they by providing too little too late prevent Ukraine from indeed winning the war. Which indeed would have the war go nuclear. But that again is so taboo that no politician or NATO general can compute such a scenario. Like idiots ignoring the blatantly obvious.
Zelensky is between a rock and a hard place. Without negating the still active Russian air power he can forget that any offensive will succeed. Provided the Russians don’t panic and break. Yet, as history shows the Russians are good at defensive battles, especially in pre-prepared positions. As still is the case.
Ukraine is akin to the British task force commander in the Falklands who was forced by Thatcher for political reasons to get on with it and attack something after having some ships sunk. So a non-military important target Goos Green was attacked.
All Ukraine can safely do at the moment without at least denying the control of the air of the Russians is probing attacks hoping that the line will collapse by panicking Russians and then exploiting that success. Otherwise, maneuver warfare is out of the question. Attacking fully entrenched positions in depth is something different than the successes of Ukraine last year.
Since Putin’s meddling in detail with the war has been curtailed by his oligarchs the Russian military leadership has clearly set up a far more competent defense, that still holds.
Also, the politicians are then able when Ukraine ultimately is forced akin to Finland in 1939 to accept losing land to blame it on the Ukrainians. They should have fought better for NATO did all it could. Which is an obvious blatant lie. By the way, any military alliance worth that name must protect any state that is accepted as a potential ally when they outside their own guilt get threatened or attacked.
Our oligarch politicians are thus betting that ultimately after a long war a Korea 38 parallel line, the DDR wall, and other such “peace” solutions.
So, when a Trump-like president is elected in 2024 then Ukraine will probably go the way of Finland 1939. This will happen even sooner when the Russians become successful in the attack. That I however doubt, but still when that happens even the Biden-type presidents will back down on aid to Ukraine.
So, what could such a scenario look like? A scenario that is politically taboo at the moment other than to state that we are backing Ukraine all the way. This is a blatant lie for if that was so NATO would have stopped the war already.
Anyway, I guess the Russian oligarchs could conjure up a lie that the most recent annexation of Ukraine was due to an indeed lack of correct formalities something that needs correcting. And that the renewed annexation in light of the enormous military aid backing by NATO with F16 etc. makes the war imprudent and that thus the war must be fought out in a legal way.
A Russian road toward Crimea with Ukrainian viaducts and a secure water supply for Crimea which will become/ stay Russian will be a sort of deal that might spring out of this to stop the fighting.
The contested areas will become demilitarized and a peacekeeping force of say Swiss, Austrian, and Irish forces will take over.
And a legal war that lasts 50 years and part of Ukraine maybe become part of the EU and NATO.
That is something the idiot NATO oligarch politicians are working towards.
The only real way out is to test my Oracle Senate plan.