WHAT MUST OUR POLITICIANS DO? FOLLOW THE VOTERS OR LEAD?
https://news.sky.com/video/russians-making-progress-in-the-east-12630748
Putin is gambling all or nothing to surround the most experienced Ukraine forces facing the eastern Donbas. Zelensky has for the first time given casualty figures of his forces. 100 to 150 killed in action a day and 500 to 800 wounded per day. Zelenski as a true leader visited his troops at this front recently.
This carnage is not sustainable for the loss of experienced fighters can’t quickly enough be replaced.
This situation is all due to the too-little-too-late diddering NATO policy of systems being given. Systems Zelensky was begging for like MLRS, etc. Those systems take time to deploy. The line might crack any moment. This is however true for both sides. Anyway, Putin’s forces are making slow progress, and as predicted by me from before the start of the war concentrating on getting the Donbas. Two of the goals: the route to Crimea including Crimea have been met.
The goal of having NATO and friends declare neutrality is still pending. The means were clear from the start: a de-escalating nuke strike and if need be escalation towards Armageddon.
Nuclear weapons in Russian military doctrine[edit]
Main article: Military doctrine of Russia
“According to a Russian military doctrine stated in 2010, nuclear weapons could be used by Russia “in response to the use of nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it or its allies, and also in case of aggression against Russia with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is threatened”.[44][45][46] Most military analysts believe that, in this case, Russia would pursue an ‘escalate to de-escalate’ strategy, initiating limited nuclear exchange to bring adversaries to the negotiating table. Russia will also threaten nuclear conflict to discourage initial escalation of any major conventional conflict.[47]“
This Wikipedia page I referred to even before the war. This latter bit is new to me:
2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine[edit]
“During the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin placed Strategic Rocket Forces‘s nuclear deterrence units on high alert, a move heavily condemned internationally.[57] Putin warned that “whoever tries to hinder us” in Ukraine would see consequences “you have never seen in your history”.[58] According to the US Director of National Intelligence, Avril Haines, Putin could potentially turn to nuclear weapons if he perceived an “existential threat” to the Russian state or regime.[59] He could regard a possible defeat in Ukraine as an existential threat to his regime.[60]“
That is exactly what I’ve been stating even before the bloody war started.
It would be folly to believe that Putin is bluffing. And it remains the question of the unpredicted resolve of NATO will survive this nuke pressure test. Even now it’s showing cracks due to the economic hardship of whopping inflation, and whopping famine due to this war. We in the West are moral to blame for this by default.
If Ukraine cracks to the degree that Putin might want to risk grabbing the whole south coast the war might drag on for a bit.
The Ukrainian political leadership and military are between a rock and a hard place. Politically and for morale, ground that has been fought over so hard has become “sacred” ground. For that reason as well a fighting retreat is the most difficult of military maneuvers. Akin the Falaise pocket in WW2.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falaise_pocket
Militarily getting the hell out of there would be wise. A Mariupol scenario of a fortress is probably only possible in the industrial area of Severodonetsk. Volunteers will have to probably sacrifice themselves to have the army have a fighting chance to get out of the pincer movement. Attacking the pincers from the outside by Ukraine is to be expected.
Yet I guess the shock of the piss poor performance of his forces Putin will call it a day when having grabbed enough of Donbas to claim annexation into Russia. This is essential for Putin for grabbing the land is one but holding it with the feeble forces he has against a growing power on the Ukraine side will prove impossible. Putin has been scraping the barrel in getting T62 tanks dating from 1962 into the line.
When he has nuked NATO into neutrality after rebuilding his armed forces properly he’ll attack again when his regime is again in need of getting the focus of his people away from the piss poor performance of him as a leader.
Given the idea that Putin won’t go nuclear, getting the hell out of there would be the best bet for Zelensky. Get out of there and counterattack later when the MLRS and Pzh 2000 etc are operational.
The political problem is however that once annexed the Donbas will fall under nuclear protection and can no longer be attacked without causing a nuclear response.
As stated over and over again Putin WILL when he is forced to accept his minimum goal or when in danger of being toppled such as when things go wrong for him on the battlefield go for the nuke option. The de-escalating nuke strike is probably now near Lviv. When that doesn’t do the trick, then he will probably nuke the Maasvlakte harbour near Rotterdam in Holland. Why that is please see my earlier posts.
A mobster like Putin will pounce on any weakness and holes in the nuclear umbrella. Putin won’t believe that Biden will respond nuclear yet throw in the towel. Which we all should hope for. NATO is akin to a baboon desperately clinging to peace. Putin is the hunter of this dead zombie NATO baboon that doesn’t know it yet.
Lavrov stated that the nuclear option is out of the question in Ukraine for only when the existence of the state is at stake would that be possible. Indeed Lavrov also told the half-truth that the Russian forces went to Belarus to do an exercise. Anyway, Wladimir “L’Etat Cést Moi” Putin will find any justification he likes to get the tactical nuke strike he had planned to use on NATO from the start. The weather prevented his plan from pressuring NATO into neutrality. So playing the nuke trump card is the only option when Putin wants to enforce true negotiations from a position of strength and hoped for by him ‘fait accompli’.
To counterattack Zelenski will need a steady stream of heavy weapons. Putin gambles that the nuke trump card will stop that and even stop the economic sanctions.
We’ve been led by a bunch of political baboons blundering us into a new world war.
As stated all along Putin is to be seen as a healthy far above average fast-thinking authoritarian autistic narcissist in the block model. Putin being an experienced ex-KGB mobster on that Stalinistic track of mind and indeed probably only in mental disorder on the track of mind of having been religiously hypnotized in saving the Slavic people by his Rasputin Dugin.
As such Putin isn’t mad, but the situation he created around him with yes-men makes it mad. Putin is best seen as an authoritarian autistic bull that has transformed into a narcissistic hammerhead shark.
Current paradigm has humanity seen as non nature but nurture all wolves. The truth of my blockmodel however shos a different picture. Get this wrong as we do all hell will always break out in the long run.
Putin’s personality type places him under pressure in extreme tunnel vision. The reason why this is is that it has brought him to power. That success has made it religious. No decent person would believe that any leader would take such idiotically stupid risks. Alas, the chance of that being successful therefore rises. Up to a point that is. Now Putin is in a desperate situation and will react like a desperado. He would rather die than lose face. Like Hitler, you will have to literally blow him out of his bunker in the Kremlin.
Most casual onlookers will think that Putin is a loser. Because NATO and all allies have shown indeed also unexpected by my resolve. Claiming the alliance has been strengthened.
When NATO bows out and throws in the towel, then NATO will probably collapse. That is what Putin no doubt is betting on.
If NATO, on the other hand, can then find the political will to do what they should have done in 2014, then indeed Putin even then can be ousted. Yet only by building him a golden bridge way out. For instance, make him a modern monarch by telling whopping white lies. Such as that it isn’t all his fault.
Again you simply can’t strike a deal with mobsters when they aren’t neutralized. The entire ex-KGB mobsters need to be neutralized. Hopefully, all are put in jail after a truly fair trial in a tribunal.
Politicians need to know beforehand what they will do when Putin goes nuclear. Throwing in the towel will have Xi attack Taiwan. And it definitely won’t stop there for the world economy is in a meltdown faze undermining resolve to act wisely. Quite the opposite is true. It leads leaders to act in desperation to cling to power. The whole bloody cause of the war in the first place.
What is the mood of the voters in our democracies? Will, they after all this carnage grasp that true leadership is now the only safest way given an inherently dangerous situation? Or do the voters require the proof of a nuke on say Lviv to wake up? And then what?
As the ancient Romans already knew: Colonize countries with the prospect of becoming free rich Roman citizens. In reality, a small chance of being free and rich, and a whopping chance of being poor and thus defacto enslaved. Leave their religions alone, unless too scary like the silly Christians opposing slavery. Let the slaveholder oligarchs stay in power as long as they play along. Keep the people dumb and busy and calm via bread and games. Crackdown with tyrannical harshness against any disorder.
Isn’t that exactly what Putin, Trump, and Le Pen do / ultimate will do as well?
Okay, modern ex-prof. Diederik Stapel & Newton stealing idea’s from Hooke klepto science added the myth of mad geniuses to sidetrack that 20% minority of artistic and spiritual out-of-the-box leadership. The 50% + 1 vote logic of democracy alone is dysfunctional. This is the theoretical job of the Senates of democracies. After autocratic monarchs proved not to be capable of doing that.
The 50% + 1 vote system only works best with parties in society. parties to which everyone more or less belongs. The ‘woman” party. The “males” party. The young party. The old party. The lawyer’s party. etc.
The proven predictable result is the thermodynamics of war as to be seen in the algorithm of Dr. Ingo Piepers. In my mission in life since I was four years old in preventing WW3, I tried to pose valid falsification of Piepers. Yet in so doing strengthened it via adding evidence in spotting the same algorithm in court cases. Fighting deforce cases and neighbor rows. I.e. situations in which there are problems and people can’t get away from each other.
Flighing Wedgewood saucers followed by that lessening and then followed by lateral sarcasm that isn’t computed by the other, silence before the storm, and wham, a chain reaction of violence. This is a result of rising tension mostly directly or indirectly due to financial problems.
As any mathematically well-trained brain must know that you can only breach an algorithm by doing something radically and fundamentally different.
This is all proven by n = high statistics of the history of the physics of mass-psychology that Nobel prize laureate mathematician and philosopher Bertrand Russell had regretted not having studied at the end of his life. And also exactly what this blog is about: Bayesian paradoxical ramblings on the physics of mass-psychology.
The slight twist to Roman common sense is formal and material decency.
Decent all-inclusive Bildung.
Keep them busy in a decent way. So: decent jobs & decent games.
Decent bread as a garanteed decent income.
As any one- to six-year-old can be made to understand: DON’T PESTER! Do or die!
Abolish Ponzi style pestering by poor & rich poverty because it’s already forbidden slavery leading to slowly overstressing the mental system. Invariably leading to mounting conflicts and ultimately world wars.
A slave is a slaveholder of ones-self. All slaveholders are addicted to slaveholding. This is due to the lack of Bildung that every kid should have had in the twelve toward eighteen years towards a valid high school diploma.
Current psychology withheld essential information due to a earning model we all are forced to use. Had they not done that then the problem of preventing war would have been solved long ago.
The situation of C-KUJRTM. (Collectieve kop uit je reet trek moment. I hope google translate works here.)
Had Napoleon Bonapart had his individual KUJRTM by having and grasping the blockmodel he would have won Waterloo. Having then kept his narcissistic side in check not to grant Ney his victory. And thus sent in his old guard to back up Ney who had pressed Wellington into a vulnerable square.
Had Napoleon had the block model sooner and thus made sure everyone had it lasting peace would have ensued. It takes all parties to tango in balance.
When someone like I who can prove to have given a subject much thought, and who can prove to have had a long successful track record states on his field of great expertise to do a test to fundamentally breach the thermodynamics of war algorithm, then no scientist can oppose that without showing valid falsification of the presented model.
Proof I see no valid falsification: QED do the bloody test!
The decision by any political party to do the test alone might just in the nick of time before the Gates of Hell snatch victory of regainend peace and prosperety from the claws of death and destruction.
The reason this is it breaks the hypnotic taboo spell of this topic.