AS SOON AS PUTIN HAS GRABBED WHAT HE AT LEAST NEEDS AN ULTIMATUM UNDER DECLARATION OF WAR FOLLOWED BY A “DE-ESCALATING” NUCLEAR STRIKE IS EXTREMELY PROBABLE.
WE HAD TO CHOOSE BETWEEN DISHONOR AND WAR, WE CHOSE DISHONOR WE’LL HAVE WAR.
Hoping that everything will sort itself out, and the Russian people will dispose of Putin or that he’ll die of a heart attack is childish. Putin has repeatedly stated words to the effect of hinting in mobster talk that he is going to use nukes by his well-known military doctrine of a de-escalating nuclear strike. This is in his mind something that will make the subsequent negotiations go his way.
That this is a suicidal gamble that might lead to a nuclear winter doesn’t make it in any way improbable that he will indeed be in the power of actually doing so. Up until now, he’s been true to his, incomprehensible by all decent people’s, words.
I guess the world has woken up to this fact. Yet our leaders aren’t as yet fully awake to the danger that they are blundering us into World War 3.
What the war of Putin in Ukraine has been to the people of the free world, the sanctions and delivery of military hardware are to the Russian people. A people that are suffering hardship. People who are deprived of accurate independent information. They will thus follow their leader Putin. In this stupid way, he doesn’t even have to grab power to have the Doema agree on an ultimatum to go to war against NATO. What idiots our leaders are!
In Putin’s mind NATO and the USA, Great Brittain, and France lack the resolve to counter a nuclear strike at say Holland. We Dutch only have nukes when Biden gives them free. Do you believe he will or even should do that after such a strike? They don’t even dare explicitly state it. Nor have I heard anyone in the press dare ask that taboo question. As stated earlier by me De Maasvlakte harbor near Rotterdam in Holland seems to have been specially built to provide Putin with a perfect target for his military doctrine. Knocking NATO out of the game in one small nuclear strike.
Then he grabs all for what he will settle for, for the time being. Yet because his oligarch system is failing and will keep on doing that, neutralizing Putin without a war is essential.
For if it’s not clear to me that all of NATO is under nuclear deterrence, then why on earth would a narcissist thug like Putin believe that to be true? For Putin, it’s all or nothing. Literally death or glory.
Well if he simply grabs the Donbas and the entire coastline then Ukraine is a ripe fruit to be picked off if his plan to overthrow the Ukraine government and set up a puppet regime fails. A bit akin to the subsequent history concerning the Sudetenland before WW2 starting over Poland.
Whilst the ground operations aren’t going according to plan, the fact remains that Putin’s armed forces are slowly making headway. Some stingers and other stuff short of declaring a no-fly zone simply won’t do. For a casus belli, it makes no difference. The way our leaders are playing the game Putin as yet clearly doesn’t even have to grab power. We are giving it to him.
The only way out when we take the thermodynamics of the Dr. Ingo Piepers algorithm of world wars as a fact is to do something radically different and fast!
When we take my block model of the physics of psychology as a fact showing the know why of this all or even use common sense using the already available know-how, then we must do it in a good cop, bad cop way.
Putin is at the moment in extreme tunnel vision being a narcissist. He simply doesn’t compute all the evidence that shows what he shouldn’t do. To a lesser degree, the same is true about our own leaders. Our leaders simply can’t compute that what they are doing is an honest mistake. Their brains are lagging behind in not being able to do anything that can be construed as having made blunders from the start. Also not grasping quickly enough that the mindset of the electorate has changed faster than they can compute.
As stated several times in earlier posts, we need to relieve the pressure on Putin. Broker a deal. Say accepting one or two “independent potential states” under UN control. All Ukraine and Russians soldiers out. Including the coastline. The ultimate goal of all countries is to become part of the New EU and NATO including Russia with a modern monarch Tsar Putin.
This case also proves that International Law done in this way as having Putin already prematurely branded a war criminal prevents getting out of the death spiral we are in at the moment. These sort of lawyers simply don’t understand that emergencies break the laws of mankind.
They want to play the boss of the God of War Mars.