MY NEW BLOGSITE FIRST POST. ALL FORMER POSTS CAN NOW BE READ AGAIN!
My educated guess is that Putin is a desperado who to survive in his view is focussing on having a true victory parade on May 9th. The remembrance day of victory day in WW2.
As I stated from the start Putin will have to go nuclear to conform to his de-escalating nuke strike doctrine banking on striking a good deal without being burdened by sanctions.
As we know his previous plan failed due to rain in February forced on him by his mate Xi. Then the piss-poor performance of his armed forces. That too was new to Putin and no one could afford to bank on that. I guess everyone thought that it would probably be over quickly having the clown Zelensky flee the country.
His air force is not able to even gain air superiority preventing the resupply of the Ukrainian forces. The loss of his prided flagship will also have put Putin in a different mindset. Instead of waiting several weeks to mount a summer offensive he again seemingly makes the same mistake he made in the North striking on Kyiv. Due to the predictable mud Putins’forces are too road-bound. Maybe Putin’s new general is banking that the Ukrainian forces are also at the end of their tether. Indeed, this might be so, for having only received too little too late. I.e. just enough to keep in the fight. When indeed Ukraine’s forces collapse then Putin can indeed grasp what he needs before going nuclear. For in his mind that will lead to a status quo at the negotiating table in an immediate cease-fire.
Due to the new situation, I guess Putin will no longer seek a confrontation with NATO and opt to go tactical nuclear in Ukraine. Putin will gamble that this will force NATO into neutrality. For the time being Putin only needs Donbas and an end to the sanctions. The probable target is Lviv which is a supply hub for reinforcements near the border with NATO country Poland. This is obvious the nuke target is far away from Russia’s heartland and close to NATO. And indeed not have been able to a great extent to block the resupply to this moment is a piss-poor performance of Putin’s air force. Therefore the military worthwhile target. We know that humanitarian or legal war crime considerations don’t play a role in Putin’s mobster mindset.
NATO should beat Putin to the punch. Thus do what NATO should have done in 2014. Threaten with airpower yet build Putin a golden bridge way out. For it’s criminally insane to gamble that Putin will not go nuclear on this! Putin simply has no other choice! He planned on going nuclear from the start. Banking on the hope that Putin will be toppled is also criminally insane.
NATO planners and politicians of course (? They have to this moment acted like idiots.) have their plan ready being…………..?
So:
Scenario no plan for too taboo to even contemplate. The ah, we’ll muddle through as we have so successfully done up till now. The “we can’t help it, for it’s not our war” thinking this will be a long protracted war, in which Putin will sit idly by having the West supply a guerilla war.
Scenario NATO threatens to intervene by doing what they should have done in 2014. The peace in a day is a piece of cake scenario. only requiring courage and leadership.
Scenario NATO neutrality in which all of Ukraine will be de-Nazified and WW3 postponed for a few months.
Scenario even harsher sanctions and heavier weapons to Ukraine. In that case, Putin WILL escalate the nuke strike against NATO. I guess Maasvlakte harbour near Rotterdam. Anyway, a nice route to WW3.