6 minute read
Had NATO had full coverage of nuclear deterrence in 2014 then Putin would not even have dared to take the Crimea. Had he then done with his green men, what he has done, then just threatening to intervene by NATO would have deterred Putin. Putin from the moment NATO would have fixed the umbrella would have known, that Russia’s military doctrine of a de-escalating nuclear strike made no more sense. Wikipedia:
Nuclear weapons in Russian military doctrine[edit]
Main article: Military doctrine of Russia
According to a Russian military doctrine stated in 2010, nuclear weapons could be used by Russia “in response to the use of nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it or its allies, and also in case of aggression against Russia with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is threatened”.[43] Most military analysts believe that, in this case, Russia would pursue an ‘escalate to de-escalate’ strategy, initiating limited nuclear exchange to bring adversaries to the negotiating table. Russia will also threaten nuclear conflict to discourage initial escalation of any major conventional conflict.[44] (end quote)
The latter threatens a nuclear conflict. That is something that Putin has already done several times. Lukashenko referred to this well-known doctrine in his speech whilst Putin stood beside him. The mobsters talking trying to convey an obvious message. Mind, this is fact and not speculation on my part.
It’s also a fact that most voters, politicians, and military leaders have no hands-on experience like I have with more than thirty years dealing with larger and smaller mobster-style criminals as a lawyer, DA, and judge. They simply don’t know what they are up against.
A colossal error in reasoning ensues when not understanding that ‘deterrence’ only works when it actually deters. Given the military doctrine of the de-escalating nuclear strike that is neigh absolute proof that NATO’s nuclear doctrine doesn’t deter. This colossal error is further compounded by the thought that anyone who thinks differently i.e. who thinks along the lines of the explicit Russian military doctrine is mad. Apart from the question of whether that is correct that the Russian military is mad(they aren’t BTW), it’s irrelevant. For then NATO will have to deal with madmen. For else you are criminally insane. The only reason you are not to be seen as such is that indeed everyone is insane, so no one is.
Nuclear war is taboo even to think of my most decent people. Thus voters, politicians, and even the military back in 1981 have never really thought straight about how nuclear deterrence actually works. It’s alright to believe that any use of nukes will be a MAD game over. MAD: Mutually Assured Destruction. Only the problem is when you don’t have full coverage of nukes in an alliance that will open the door to attack and ultimately nuclear war. That’s just what mobsters do. They are always literally suicidal gamblers in tunnel vision especially when surrounded by yes-men.
And yes a limited nuclear war is possible then. That is exactly the scenario we are in right now.
As the RAND rapport in 2019 also noted things got even worse after the Warsaw Pact was dissolved. The only targets for a small tactical nuclear strike were no longer on satalite WP states but either your own countries or Russia. Enhancing the probability of not being seen as credible and hence escalating to the extreme.
Putin proved that indeed the first casualty in war is the plan. His first plan to go nuclear if NATO didn’t declare neutrality failed due to weather and mud in February for his strike with 50% of his forces in the direction of Kaliningrad. Yet it also must have been a shock to Putin that the west rallied the way they did concerning the sanctions. Putin was banking on a divided west. The west was seen as divided via Brexit, Macron stating that NATO was brain dead and the way the USA left Afghanistan eroded the deterrence even further.
Had Putin known all this from the start, it might have deterred him. The problem now is that he is committed. It is do-or-die. Putin knows that losing face will probably topple him and that he will then die. He is thus a desperado using Stalinistic measures. Up till now, these have worked for him.
Actually dying after a grand gesture is what these types crave as the second-best option.
Playing all or nothing.
The types that have been ignored at school in the end grab a gun and start killing everyone at a school and then shoot themselves in an orgy of violence. So the thought of ultimate power to blow up the world is appealing to types like Putin. Think whatever you like about how mad that is, that is the way these types think.
Hence the only way to get this under control is to give Putin a golden bridge way out. A very bitter pill indeed.
The other problem is that in the west the industrial-military complex likes a long war. Good for profit and building a large army again after the cutbacks the last years. It needs to be made clear to everyone also the industry and military that we in the west must keep the military balance with an expansionistic China under Xi. In the mid-long term, Russia should become part of NATO and the EU as well. So the industry and military need not worry.
In the long term, all weapons of mass destruction can only be abolished when real peace is reached in a free federative UN state. Akin the idea of Bertrand Russell. Yet that can only come about when poverty being slavery is abolished.
My model of the physics of psychology proves that by simply testing the use of the current Big Five assessment in the oracle senate, with senators for life, this will all come about. Otherwise, it becomes the thermodynamics of war. Which can only be breached by doing something radically different. This oracle senate does just that. This is my field of study and expertise as a former lawyer and DA.
Especially possible for it must be one of the reasons to uphold the sanctions that Russia indeed starts to do this test. It will prevent yes-men around the new president in Russia. For that is one of the fatal flaws causing this blundering in the Ukraine war that WILL go nuclear.
For this and getting all the suspects apart from Putin to the UN, the tribunal is where sanctions will indeed work.
It’s in everyone’s interest that Biden gives the nukes and the keys of the nukes of countries like the Netherlands to the EU via a new senate with senators for life. The best deterrence and wisdom under stress. You don’t want problems like we had with Trump or with a perceived as a sleepy Joe Biden in the eyes of a mobster Putin.
In one stroke Putin’s plan is thwarted.
Albeit that such would have been the case before 2014.
Now Putin as a desperado is committed to his plan.
As soon as Putin has grabbed what he needs or to the maximum he can get, the bastards of the NATO will stab him in the back In Kaliningrad. In self-defense, he will nuke Maasvlakte harbour near Rotterdam. (or somewhere else in non-nuke NATO) And phone Biden if he would be so kind to declare neutrality.
Biden will angrily state that it was a false flag. “No!”, said Putin. “My glorious army has defended against this trechiourous attack because I had to withdraw forces from there! Yet, in self-defense, I had no other viable option but to go nuclear. I chose a valid military target with little collateral damage. Especially the Dutch who in the MH-17 trial say I’m a terrorist. I demand that all these unfriendly things stop immediately!”
Types like Putin will then predictably be banking on the hope that Biden will at least broker a deal on the status quo of the battlefield in Ukraine.
Mind this very important point. The worse it gets for Putin’s army all the more he will be inclined to escalate further up the nuclear ladder with his demands! Not to be seen losing face is everything to him.
He needs to meet his minimum requirements in order not to lose face! If he can’t get it by conventional means he will be forced to get it via nuclear weapons.
I would hope then that Biden indeed declares neutrality as will the EU et al. For what rationale is there when you only then, but too bloody late, find out that your deterrence had already failed since Russia got nuclear weapons?
Again it’s bloody basic: deterrence only deters when the one that is to be deterred is not to be seen acting as if he’s not deterred. NATO has insanely acted not as a one and indivisible force under one nuclear umbrella.
Biden, Boris, and Macron could do their best after Holland has been nuked to broker a deal in which Putin is given a golden bridge way out. And strike the deal they should of made from the start or tomorrow.
Yet not grasping this now, it will neigh certain be impossible to grasp this, when the mental strain is so great after Putin has nuked NATO.
Then later on Putin will continue on this path until he’s stopped.
Xi will grab Taiwan. No sanctions will ensue.
Somewhere along the line WW3 will start and maybe or maybe not go nuclear. For akin that before WW2 all experts were sure that chemical weapons would be used, but as we now know they weren’t.
World War Three will certainly be more horrendous than World War Two. Even without going nuclear. The amount of weaponry and the destructive power is whoppingly larger than it was back then.
And when talking about the environment, well……………
Peace in a day is a piece of cake.
Only however when you have leaders that aren’t religiously hypnotically blocked in denial, and actually prove that they can think properly. Up till now, they have proven to blunder us into a protracted war in Ukraine and melted the world economy even further. A failing economy was the motor behind the focus on war by Xi and Putin in the first place. How bloody stupid can you be? Well, because it’s a democracy we are indeed all to blame. For god’s sake just snap out of it.