PROVING THAT PEACE IN A DAY IS STILL A PIECE OF CAKE

5 minute read and one doodle graphic

Based on evidence that was and is taken to be absolutely true and thus as a fact.

Because time is of the essence I’m not going to bother too much with nitty-gritty details to look everything up. In this post, I’m shooting from the hip with what I remember. So please correct me if I’m wrong by either providing extra evidence as to the correct evidence or showing anything illogical. In so doing posing a valid falsification of the claim that on circumstantial evidence it is beyond reasonable doubt by those that can show sufficient study of the data that has relevance on the probandum.

That is the valid exact scientific best practice proof.

The norm in the procedure is high school level takeaways. This is based on the conviction that everything you really understand must be explainable to any well-educated high school kid. This is taken to be a greater than 99% truth.

This is the correct legal procedure of a fair disciplinary hearing. Such as any headmaster of any high school should be able to perform.

Fact 1. The EU & NATO / The USA stated that harsh sanctions would be taken if and when Putin would use military force against Ukraine.

Conclusion: Putin had enough reason to fear that these sanctions would jeopardize his position in a way that he could be overthrown by his oligarch peer group or the military or the people. He thus had a motive to provide for a sufficient bargaining chip to get these sanctions lifted in the end game.

Fact 2. Putin stated in so many words that he wished NATO out of the influence sphere of the former Soviet Union. Explicitly mentioning Finland and non-NATO member Sweden.

Fact 3. Putin himself repeatedly explicitly mentioned in no uncertain terms to turn things into nuclear ashes. Also standing next to the president of Belarus who explicitly in so many words referred to the well-known Russian nuclear doctrine. A doctrine that military analysts years ago already interpreted as a “de-escalating nuclear strike without having to expect a counter strike.”

Conclusion: This cannot be construed as to be only for internal consumption but an explicit threat to the west to stay out of it, or get nuked. Please bear in mind that Bertrand Russell stated that most people including politicians underestimate the danger of blundering into a nuclear war.

Fact 4. Putin only has used 1/3 of his directly available forces in the initial attack to attack Kieve, the Donbas, and waterways in the South. Normally a tactical reserve of 20% is needed for an attack when air superiority is assumed, to be sufficient to prevent any strategic reserves of the enemy from intervening. Any upscaling of the needed forces if the initial plan failed can be taken from the strategic reserve and added to a change of plan. Such as wanting to take the whole of Ukraine.

Fact 5. The remaining 2/3 of the directly available forces could have been used in a different plan and would be at least capable of attacking NATO in Lithuania in a pincer movement from Kaliningrad between Belarus as a vassal state it now has proven to be. Putin played the game in concert with Xi-Jinping and started immediately after the Olympics as predicted. The RAND rapport 2019 states that the Baltic states are indefensible in the first instance even when NATO resorts to tactical nuclear weapons. Because tank formations can use open spread out formations. Furthermore, Russian tanks exert less ground pressure for are lighter than western tanks on soft ground. There was exceptionally more meltwater and rain than was to be expected making inundated mud planes too large forcing chokepoints that made the use of tactical nukes possible. The attack on Ukraine not having nukes didn’t require the use of spread out formations. The weather gods made Putin ‘s plan impossible. Pure luck, for Putin has been explicitly hinting on article 5 of NATO. Most decent people don’t understand mobster talk.

Conclusion: His initial plan concerning Ukraine did not require a force of this size. The only other rational target based on the given motive was one or more of the Baltic states. As a bargaining chip when crippling sanctions were imposed. The threatening with only sanctions was absolute stupidity. Taken in this limited context the west should of either declared neutrality or threaten to use tactical nuclear weapons in support of Ukraine if need be as if it were a NATO member along the borders of Donbas and Crimea. And only provide air power and no boots on the ground. That would have deterred Putin from striking and stopped him dead in his tracks even after he did strike. Without the need to have to resort to nuclear weapons but deterring him from any violence at all outside the mentioned areas.

Sarcastic Fun Fact: I’m told the daughter of Putin is staying in the Netherlands. Well, facts like these would possibly get the Netherlands off the top of Putin’s shitlist due to the MH-17 trial branding him in so many words a terrorist leader. So we Dutch need to watch her possibly leaving the country very closely. This to start evacuating the Maasvlakte harbor near Rotterdam when all this spirals even further out of control.

Fact A. Xi is watching the resolve of the west poised to attack Taiwan. Probably he’s aware of the initial plan to evoke the limited use of nuclear force doctrine. Which he if need be could then test on Japan.

Fact B. The Philippines, Africa and other places of possible conflict with the west exist. When will the west draw the line? That is an open question that shouldn’t exist.

Fact C. In my model of the new exact scientific physics of psychology, Putin is a narcissist like Hitler. In my model when pressured on their allergic authority they will have extreme tunnel-vision. They do have sometimes traumatic even feelings of guilt and shame when traumatic data proves them unexpectedly wrong. The evidence to the contrary that most others would have seen, wasn’t in focus before it obviously went wrong. Because it was very probable to go wrong it is deemed mad. Yet this is “automatically” blocked out * as with everybody (!) * as a protection of the brain from damage due to that trauma. Blaming the Jews became more and more a religious ideology for all Germans. The danger is that Putin will become more and more erratic when things go wrong with his plans and he starts to become paranoid for ” all the Russians” or even worse “all Slavic people”. If not stopped he will become more and more extremely paranoid and Stalinistic. He is literally fighting for his life. Knowing that if he’s toppled he will be executed. That is not a delusion. Not being able to make a healthy assessment of the situation because he’s more and more surrounded by “Yes” men is the problem. It’s robotics in my model. See Putin as an out of order Coffee machine that sparks off a fire. The Ingo Piepers thermodynamics of war having world war 3 ultimately in 2022 is getting more and more strong evidence proving it to be true. As my seeing the same algorithm in fight divorces and neighbor rows i.e. situations in which parties can’t get rid of the stress by parting. Yet I haven’t seen all his data or have had that checked, so don’t pin me on the exact date that WW3 erupts. Repeated history shows that repeated state terror in a Stalinist way works too bloody long before it fails. The thus caused tunnel vision of hatred on the person little dysfunctional robot for not teamed up properly wanting “justice” in a suicidal way, blocks the solution even in democracies that are thus also dysfunctional.

Fact D. The only way to get out of an algorithm is to test something fundamentally different. It being inherently taboo hits everybody in the gut of traumatic feelings of guilt and shame. We are all to blame. So wanting to put Putin and his cronies on trial before a tribunal more than an immediate peace settlement in which Putin becomes a modern monarch Tsar is taboo. I’d rather have that than that even one more Ukrainian kid gets killed in this thus criminally insane war. A war that is going to go into a world war and then go into a nuclear winter. I’ve observed with my own eye’s the way even in 1981 the top military thinking in NATO was to end the exercise after a week because it had gone nuclear. The thinking stopped there. I thought that very odd and dangerous for I knew that the Russian doctrine saw tactical nuclear weapons as just another weapon. It is the same reason why even Ukrainians honestly couldn’t believe someone like Putin to be so bad and mad as to actually start a war. This naïve way of  thinking of decent people, soldiers as well as politicians also causes nuclear war.

FINAL CONCLUSION

Everybody please tell your leaders to do what I stated in my previous post “Who’s Badass Boss? Putin? No, NATO! Peace in a day is a piece of cake. The actually to be used airpower instead of nukes or boots on the ground, is something good cop PM Rutte should whisper in the ear of Putin. Something along the lines like: “Dear Putin, mate, I as a dove can hardly keep the NATO air force hawks at bay”. That will stop Putin dead in his tracks. And then Rutte should implicitly force him to test the new oracle senate correctly, for otherwise crippling sanctions will be indeed enforced. Even to the degree of waging war on Putin personally. Then he will counter forcing us in the west to do the same senate test. The correct well-informed team doing proper groupthink is a panacea. Always give your enemy a honorable way out without loss of face. Yet always draw and hold the honorable line defined by taking all circumstantial evidence into account on an honorable goal.

WHO’S BADASS BOSS? PUTIN?

QED!