8.5 minute read and a doodle graphic

MY BLOG PROVES THAT OF THE TWENTY PREDICTIONS I MADE NINETEEN HAVE COME TRUE, WITH ONE STILL LOOMING. TOMORROW PUTIN WILL INDEED DO WHAT I STATED HE SHOULD HAVE DONE EARLIER. DECLARE WAR ON UKRAINE. AND GIVE AN ULTIMATUM TO NATO COUNTRIES TO DECLARE NEUTRALITY GIVING NATO A VERY SHORT PERIOD TO COMPLY. CONFORMING TO HIS MILITARY DOCTRINE PUTIN WILL AGAIN BE FORMALLY WARNING NATO THAT RUSSIA WILL BE USING NUKES BECAUSE ‘THE EXISTENCE OF RUSSIA IS THREATENED’. PROBABLY PUTIN WILL NUKE LVIV WITH A SMALL TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPON AND INDEED ESCALATE INTO ARMAGEDDON WHEN NATO DOESN’T BOW TO HIS WISHES.

AS STATED BEFORE THE KREMLIN AND THE OUTCOME OF WAR ARE BLACK BOXES TO EVERYONE. I’M ONLY PREDICTING WHAT PUTIN WILL DO. EXPLICITLY THIS IS NOT STATING WHAT THE OUTCOME WILL BE OF PUTIN’S ACTIONS. IT’S ALREADY CLEAR THAT PUTIN MIGHT BE TOPPLED AT ANY MOMENT.

(Oddly enough some people don’t grasp how significant it is when critical things on what a leader will do that scoring 19 out of 20 with also explanations why it is to boot are proof of the artistic talent of helicopter view. The genius is, that it isn’t genius for my talent is a 1/125 affaire. Multiply by 7 billion and you will understand that there are many with that talent. To fact check click on the menu and then blog. Scroll through the posts. )

How did we get here, and what can NATO do about this?

The most fundamental reason is that we humans don’t know what a human is, and what a human is doing in the cosmos. Earlier in my blog, I went into this. The game-changer to my otherwise > 99% old school Wikipedia-style learning method via open source sharing of knowledge is the Block Model. This conforms to the ideal of the current Big Five scientific assessment psychology. This is by getting the team properly organized and working together via a correct procedure akin to Theory U type methods. Methods in which all ego is kept in check whilst not infringing on any of the ten fundamental human laws. The latter have been derived from the ten laws of everything. Most of which humanity already had but didn’t recognize as fundamental laws of (human) nature. Any high school kid can and must learn to intuitively recognize how to play this paradoxical game of mental chess. This is to ultimately be able to recognize the 64 different personality type robotic algorithms as the DNA “skeletons” (metaphor) of all mammals.

In 2014 when Putin’s green men took Crimea, I too was duped by the media. Crimea seemed more Russian than Ukrainian. Only later did I grasp the seriousness of the situation. Just like in 1938 thinking that being neutral and having appeasement would work with Hitler and that the mighty French army would easily take on the Germans. In so doing also being in denial that a new ghastly world war might erupt.

The reason I was duped is that I was far too busy with other things. Luckily so. I was working on the Block Model. As we can now see with the benefit of hindsight we all needed the advice of an as independent as optimum organization dictates, well-informed advice. Timely advice to NATO to not let this happen. Yet that advice should have been given years ago.

Having the EU in NATO as a military partner and nuclear power is the only way to protect all of the EU. had that all been in place before 2014, then Russia’s military doctrine would not have been possible and thus not existed.

Recently I learned that Putin was in the mid-1980s the KGB brain in the DDR behind the RAF terrorist group in Germany. Via this, it dawned on me that Russia played a role in the antineutron bom protests around 1980. Alas link in Dutch https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stop_de_Neutronenbom

The mindset of most voters was that thinking about nukes was taboo. For too scary. Thus it becomes a taboo for politicians not wanting to commit political suicide. Hence it becomes taboo for the military top brass of NATO. If a general wants to stay a general it’s wise to play along in a ‘MAD’ mindset instead of a ‘flexible response’ nuclear mindset. (Elsewhere on my blog I go into these military doctrines that are also on Wikipedia. You need to study this to grasp what it is I’m stating here. It’s not so difficult but quite a lot that needs to be studied.)

I was also against the neutron bomb, for it made nuclear war more probable. I wanted a high-tech and thus high-cost small semi-professional ‘short war’ NATO. But augmented with a focus on a low-tech long-duration war via a basic trained conscript mass army. The latter is built around stuff that is proven to work and can even in a large war still be built. The Ukrainian armed forces have now proved that this would have worked.

As President Eisenhower as a former general stated: “Beware of the industrial-military complex”. This complex is focused on building fancy new weapons and not on keeping the production capability of old stuff idle not for profit but just for deterrence. This is the cause of the error in reasoning. The error as such was that it was “too costly” to keep up with the Russian army’s race in a ‘one tank for one tank’ style.

Had NATO with a strong military EU been in place in 2014 then Putin wouldn’t even have thought of attempting to grab Crimea due to being in economic problems due to covid. Like so many autocrats having slowly surrounded himself with ex-KGB mobster oligarch friends as part of a larger billionaire baron oligarchy. Ergo it would have deterred Putin from blundering himself in an impossible position of being a desperado with no way out.

So, NATO and the EU should now do what they should of done before 2014. But that in turn doesn’t solve the current crises.

The military top brass of NATO have made a lot of understandeble yet hilariously basic errors:

Not grasping that war is politics via other means. They thought and think about what makes military sense.

Not focussing on the current crises but having a personal and long-term military-political focus instead.

Not knowing oneself personaly. For focussed on carreer.

Not knowing oneself as NATO being a collection of oligarchies. The same as China and Russia only “more democratic” and thus more refined in the way they dope themselves and others. This is a Ponzi style way, causing mounting mental stress leading to a Dr. Ingo Piepers thermodynamics of war algorithm scenario predicting WW3 ultimately in 2022.

Not knowing your enemy. Thinking and talking in terms of what “Russia” wants, and mirroring under the illusion that Putin will do what you would do. In so doing not understand what the mobsters Putin and bad friends will certainly do. Much too slow in picking this up. Only after the proof is complete does it dawn on the idiots in NATO that they blundered and are still blundering. Not grasping that authoritarian autistic narcissist Putin is an intelligent idiot and is in extreme tunnel vision. And would rather die than lose face.

Not advising the political leadership to build Putin a golden bridge way out. And making shore such a golden bridge is formulated. Instead of externalizing by blaming Putin that he caused “it” himself. For “it” is armageddon, you idiots!

Not grasping in your field of expertise that Putin is not bluffing and you military top brass of NATO are bluffing by stating “we have nukes too.” For we must hope that when Putin stays in power and nukes Lviv NATO will not go nuclear but that the politicians will finally get their heads out of their hindsides. The people of the west have started to wake up. Such as Finland and Sweden wanting to join NATO. Also, we must hope that NATO doesn’t declare neutrality or go on with the idiotic and counterproductive sanctions. The whole bloody crisis started due to economic problems, which are now aggravated. On the other hand, there are positive sides that the world has at last pulled together more than anyone including myself expected. The dived and rule plan of Putin worked against Putin.

Not grasping that negotiations require a good educated guess as to what is the minimum required goal of the enemy, apart from what the enemy would like to have. Such as the restoration of the former Soviet Union and sphere of influence and a divided NATO. As stated from the start Putin wants the whole of Ukraine and doesn’t care about NATO so much as not want former allies to be more successful than what is under his reign. Putin’s minimum requirement is Donbas, freshwater, and a route to including Crimea. Yet the mostly Russian-speaking part to the North and West of Moldova is also on his agenda. In the longer run, Putin of course wants all of Ukraine. He also wants a route toward Kaliningrad that he was planning on from the start. Proof: what were the 50% too many troops for during the very wet and muddy February?

Not loving your enemy Putin. Any Christian would know that to be in the bloody bible. Due to the changed circumstances, I guess Putin would now settle for less than modern monarch tsar. He might accept a full pardon and active in say China. All with a nice white lie that only all his ex-KGB cronies are to blame. As stated earlier the longer this goes on, the more difficult and thus riskier it becomes. Horrendous lies don’t bother mobsters as long as it fits their narrative.

Underestimating the own capabilities of NATO. The top brass of NATO was correct in not underestimating the potential enemy when Putin attacked Ukraine in February. No one knows what war will bring for the first casualty in war is the plan. That said it should have been clear that threatening to slowly start intervening with airpower and also hitting ground targets together with a golden bridge would have positively worked for 99% probability. And also that what NATO did now has a now proven probability of > 99% of blundering us into World War 3.

The utterly naive way of thinking in international legal terms about what a mobster like Putin will or won’t do is quite hilarious. Especially so when incapable of catching him. Having as a policy a dishonourable and cowardly appeasement policy yet also committing deeds that are nonneutral.

Basing a policy on hope instead of taking controll of the situation. Hoping that Putin will be ousted and that it will all turn out for the best with a weak Russia.

PUTINS CURRENT POSITION

The black box Kremlin is under pressure now Lukashenko has backstabbed his mate Putin by stating that it has all taken much longer than expected.

The black box Kremlin is even further under pressure now that foreign minister Lavrov has had one of his subordinates state that a nuclear attack on Ukraine is out of the question, for in breach of Russia’s rules on the use of nuclear weapons. A clear message also to the military that this use is illegal and that Lavrov wouldn’t mind the removal of Putin. As an educated guess I think Putin is not taking surgery now to not find himself waking up in jail or dying on that surgery table. Lavrov wasn’t told about the invasion and has also quite clearly not taken kindly to the slap on the wrist by Putin. The latter concerning Lavrov’s wording about the Jews to which Israel took offense.

Luckily the situation has changed concerning the conventional forces’ lack of prowess in Putin’s armed forces. Proven by their piss poor performance. Zelensky’s stellar leadership and armed forces performance must have changed the mind of Putin. Had Zelensky not stayed to fight, and the world, not militarily backed Ukraine the high moral wouldn’t have been so broadly held.

The ever-changing situation concerning the perception of Putin on his army’s chances of grabbing the minimum requirements is a black box on the battlefield. For instance, the weather and mud are not easily predicted for more than a few weeks. Putin might still chance it to deploy his best T90 and Armata tanks to at least grasp that. On the other hand, he might want to prevent being toppled by playing out the nuclear card on Lviv. Showing by proof that he’s not bluffing and that the military still follows his orders. After that, he can bank on getting surgery as soon as everybody’s best hope for NATO comes to its senses. Anyway, the rumors about his obvious bad health are continuous.

WHAT TO DO?

Well, now we can indeed best wait for Putin’s speach.

Or as a stupid choice wait for a nuke to hit Lviv. If NATO then still doesn’t bow its head to th demands of Putin most probably the uninhabited ‘Maasvlakte’ harbour near Rotterdam in Holland will be nuked. For declaring war on NATO under threat of going nuclear is now indeed in the mind of Putin.

At first I didn’t understand this Kremlin black box bit other than that Putin had problems in the Doema. On new evidience I understand that Putin didn’t want civil unrest that a mobilistation would ensue.

If he indeed does declare a mobilization the latter might or might not mean that Putin will quickly strike Lviv. Going nuclear is to knock NATO into neutrality. And to broker a deal in which he hopes to grab the whole border and Southern coast. Even though Putin will accept a deal when he gets his minimum. I predict that Putin doesn’t want to nuke Ukraine, for it’s the country he wants to annex.

Study what the top brass military of NATO didn’t study or comprehend the military doctrine of a de-escalating nuclear strike. Being one in which a counterstrike is not to be expected.

THINK BIG AND OUT OF THE BOX IN OUT OF THE BOX SITUATIONS

So even then after a first nuke, do what NATO should have done in 2014. Broker a deal in which entire Ukraine becomes an EU member albeit part as an independent free federal state. Guaranteed by NATO and guarded by UN peacekeepers. All Russian forces must be sent out of all of Ukraine and also out of Belarus.

It’s essential that Putin and all of his mobsters are neutralized via a golden bridge or receive a life sentence in a new international tribunal. This is for starting an illegal war.

Preventing this from ever happening again requires the new oracle senate test as part of the settlement. That will prevent the yes-man problem in the future.

LET SCIENCE AND THE SENATES SORT IT OUT

Also, have the entire Russian federation join the EU and NATO when it surrenders all of its nukes to the military part of the EU within NATO. For the time being, stabilizing any aggressive stance on the part of China towards NATO or the EU.