The thermodynamics of war at powerplay.

Putin isn’t bluffing but NATO and the EU are.

Rambler 32 4 minute read & doodle graphics

Although this doodle graphic shows what problem is at the heart of it all, probably only two or so weeks left for a win-win solution.

WIN-LOSE SCENARIO

Today the Olympics will end. By agreement with Xi Jinping Putin has waited, and it gave him ample time to build up and train his forces. He needed 150 combat battalions that are in place.

Tomorrow a part of them will redeploy towards the Baltic states. As the RAND rapport in 2019 states, NATO can’t at first compete in this buildup.

NATO still can’t believe that Putin isn’t bluffing. Biden, Macron, or Boris Johnson don’t dare show that they too will go nuclear if Putin attacks NATO. This by daring Putin that Putin can’t prevent them from nuking the same spot where the Russians once exploded their Tsar Bomba. And subsequently, indeed nuke that part of Nava Zembla. That won’t happen.

So Putin indeed attacks the Baltic States, especially a pincer movement in-between Kaliningrad. And also raids North Norway biding the NATO troops there. Why? Well, it’s the all-out all-or-nothing gamble of a narcissist in power using the only trump cards he has.  

Furthermore, Putin strikes Kyiv to dispose of the Ukrainian government and attacks the Donbas and the waterways towards the Crimea.

Whether Putin’s forces are successful or not in the two weeks before April doesn’t really matter for he will go nuclear following the de-escalating nuclear first-strike doctrine. His armed forces have been conditioned to think this is a great idea. So they won’t prevent this.

Knowing that Biden will ship troops ex article 5 NATO making all harbors valid nuclear targets in the eyes of Putin. NATO nor the EU have been neutral on Ukraine, so are seen as combatants.

Neither will his power base oligarch criminal billionaire friends or anyone else be able or even dare to try to dispose of Putin. Akin Admiral Canaris also knew that only if Hitler failed in the first instance could a coup be attempted. To that effect, he pre-warned via Major Oster the Dutch and allies of the attack. The Germans unexpectedly even by themselves won.

The most probable target to be nuked is the uninhabited Dutch Maasvlakte harbor near Rotterdam. As if it was specially built for Putin‘s doctrine. And we most certainly have incited Putin to hit us Dutch via in effect branding Putin a terrorist leader via the MH17 trial.

It’s indefensible against a nuclear strike. Apart from that Putin only has to prove that he’s indeed not bluffing by striking at anything in NATO with a small nuke.

Then Biden will indeed best throw in the towel.  

That will break up NATO. What is left of NATO and the EU will start * real * negotiations.

1. Immediate cease-fire;
2. Immediate halt to all sanctions;
3. Also, all former NATO and EU countries will declare their neutrality on Ukraine;
4. The Baltic states were a bargaining chip and go back to NATO.  Maybe except for a road between Poland and Lithuania running from annexed Belarus toward Kaliningrad.
5. Putin’s forces will win the war in Ukraine as the USA won in Iraq. And then the Russian troops will leave and back a pro-Russian Ukraine force in the grime of a civil war against an anti-Russian force that has no backing. Until they sue for peace as part of the Russian federation.
6. Putin will become a dictator or maybe even Tsar of Russia.
7. Xi will invade Taiwan.
8. Most countries will start to get nuclear weapons. But that is the lose-lose scenario.

LOSE-LOSE SCENARIO

The nuclear strike is met by a nuclear counter strike. Well, Putin being an authoritarian mentally healthy autistic narcissist will literally rather die than lose. So that will be a quick nuclear winter.

The bright side is that global warming and overpopulation are then less of a problem.

The “H” end of the win-lose scenario will invariably end in nuclear exchanges all over the place. Fighting has also erupted in say Serbia and Africa by groups knowing that the USA or anyone else will be in the mood to intervene.

CONCLUSION SO FAR   

The press, science all politicians are in denial. Ukraine made a deal with the USA that they would give their nukes to Russia when the USA would back them. Well, they made a contract with a morally bankrupt partner. One that is weak and not as strong as they thought. This was already proven in Vietnam and later in Afghanistan. Wars that were kept on going for arms sales profit.

NATO, the EU, and Ukraine have apart from being criminally stupid also been very naïve and lazy. That the scenario of this power play could be played out was simple logic and above all also been predicted by the RAND cooperation.

The way Biden supporters blame Trump and vice versa is idiotic and criminally insane even.

Everyone is to blame.

Well, the way out: 20% focus on the problem and 80% focus on the way out.

Even before Ingo, I could see this coming as a Titanic scenario repeating itself.

WIN-WIN  SCENARIO

To get out of the thermodynamics of war scenario that Dr. Ingo Piepers predicted years ago that would cause World War 3 in 2022 at the latest, requires a radical change.

When dealing with types like Putin you may not seem weak.

Yet don’t corner him. So temporarily before the negotiations stop the sanctions. If Ukraine doesn’t follow the advice to let Russia have the Donbas and the Crimea with water or else we will declare neutrality. Yet if they do then NATO will guarantee their new border and Putin will no longer oppose it becoming a NATO member.

Force all the countries in the world including the thus new EU and NATO to test a new Oracle Senate. All with senators for life half male half female and young and old. No longer lawmaker but a senate that speaks with one mouth giving well informed independent advice to all.

If Putin doesn’t comply then the sanctions will be reinstated and in a far worse form.

An international network of senates.

Before getting rid of all poverty and nukes, the senates will hold the keys to nuclear weapons. For they predictably will give that advice and more how to handle these things.

In the long run without any fighting having erupted both Ukraine and Russia will join NATO and the EU. Slowly evolving into what Bertrand Russell had as an ideal situation.

Putin is then made a modern monarch on the advice of that senate-to-be.  

Then Ukraine can ask itself what it’s fighting for?

Corona triggered the collapse of the Ponzi-style pyramid game economics that simply can’t work.  

There too the oracle senates can give advice.