Post of September 19th edited the 20th.

A 13-minute read excluding the addendum for fact-checking my claim

QUO VADIS?

> 99% Old-School with a Twist

1. The individual goal of what I want in my life.
2. The individual goal of what I don’t want and you don’t want.
3. The collective goal of what I want that we should want.
4. The collective goal of what we don’t want.
5. The means as a goal towards these wise goals.

“Wis” means that what is certain.

“Wise” is the degree to which you score in reaching any goal as proven by evidence of the transparent track record of your life.

My answers to these five Socratic impertinent & thus taboo questions are the following:

Ad 1. A long and justifiably content life with thus as little as possible feelings of guilt and shame or trauma’s.

Ad 2. To become summoned before the Academic Beerhall Table by the Judge of Judges on all important issues.

Ad 3. A Global Free Democratic Federation of Just States in Quattro Politica with Oracle Senates.

Ad 4. World War III & IV

Ad 5. Adhering to the Ten Articles of the Most Fundamental Human Rights & Obligations by all-inclusive Bildung.

This link to a previous post with a 3.3. minute read gives the ten dualistic break-one-you-break-all articals of law that is never to be broken even in a dire emergency.

THE ONLY WAY TO STOP WARS IS TO EVEN PREVENT SMALL DOMESTIC CONFLICTS via A BASE ECONOMY & FREE MARKET COMBINATION.

WHAT ARE YOUR FIVE ANSWERS?

OR CAN YOU MEET THE CHALLENGE TO POSE VALID FALSIFICATION OF THE TWIST?

The twist in this mostly old-school Wikipedia-style obligation to study & learn properly following the dictate of this local law of human nature is article 4.

“Art. 4-1 Just Order versus Art. 4-2 Disorder

Repeated history shows that disorder leads to unjust order and thus war. Just order is only Justified when completely consistent with all these ten articles. That is only the case when the current Big Five assessment of personality types have been trained and teamed up properly on a specific problem and ultimately state their conviction in a proper proceeding.” (quote from my blog post)

Using at first Big Five assessment psychology is practical for already proven best practices for being the way that Dutch magistrates are selected like I was. Following the correct procedure, the Big Five will when you take my model as a fact be predictably surpassed by the new Block Model. The latter contains the most fundamental order function of the cosmos as the Fourth Law of Everything.

It should have been bloody obvious to anyone especially all scientists that there is a cosmic order function at play as one of the most fundamental laws.

Well, I claim to have found that at first as a local law in 2014. Only grasping later what I had found, whilst testing it in a proper proceeding. It proved to be the Forth Law of Everything (LOE) as the cosmic order function.

The locally observable infinite cycle of Formation, Deformation, Transformation, Destruction & Reformation is dualistic because it is constructed at the same time, all the time in both a continuous and quantified way. The postulate suspect of how that can be done in a common sense way that any high school kid can understand is shown in my 5th LOE. I’m working on a set of posts that will step by step explain all this. The war in Ukraine got in the way, as did repeated discoveries in science that every time provide further strong evidence that I was on the right track from the start in physics and astronomy as well. Scan my blog to fact-check this if you like.

In hindsight, I reached this result by wisely following proper proceeding on my stated and evolved wise goals in life in a simple common sense way.

The genius is that it’s not genius at all.

My DNA talent personality type and intelligence are a 1/125 affaire. Only my Bildung and walk of life might be seen as quite exceptional, for that indeed made it far easier for me to adhere to this Law.

That by having done this in my life I’ve had a fantastic life and still have a fantastic life. Of which I can be justly proud and thus be transparent. Even though this causes jealous reactions because many feel bad being confronted by this. It’s felt as being unduly disruptive by all who are justifiably scared of the power of their inherent oligarch peer groups.

It’s a mostly unwitting struggle for getting into and or staying in power by the peer groups. A dictate of the Fourth LOE.

Carpe Diem & La Dolce Vita

MY CLAIM OF 100% SCORE > 23/23 ON MY PREDICTIONS ON PUTIN.

In an addendum to this post, I’ll provide ample evidence with quotes of what I stated before the war started. You can fact-check that if you like. For a 100% check, well, then you will have to study my whole blog.

What many find unclear is that the predictions are only on what my model dictates as an (always exact) scientific prediction of what humanoid robot Putin will do given the predictably unpredictable circumstances he is placed into. All humans are robots and that is taboo for many. Yet robots that have free will and meaning in life, as a true paradox. That is unclear to most. Idiocy is inherently unclear us all being different sorts of idiots.

The seeming magical trick is to know what is predictable and what predictably isn’t.

My predictions do of course change when the predictably unpredictable circumstances change.

From the start, I for instance as one of the few experts predicted the unpredictability of the Kremlin even for Putin, and also the unpredictability of the outcome of combat. I was proven correct. That shouldn’t be surprising as it’s also what repeated history clearly shows.

Both these inherent black boxes have now come into play. That David Ukraine has beaten Goliath Russia in a recent offensive or better offensives also now has probable repercussions in the black box of the Kremlin.

Of course, after Putin found out that his forces were no good and far worse than he had expected even though Putin should have been in the best position to know the true state of his forces, Putin was in great luck not to have taken on NATO even if the ground had been frozen. Proving my prior point that starting a war is opening a pandora’s box of predictable unpredictability where there are no experts. Paradoxically thus only the ones that like me know that no one is an expert are the true experts.

What is also shocking is that only now does the press start taking the use of tactical nuclear weapons by Putin seriously. Something that should have been made clear by the press from the start. The KGB in the DDR had successfully made nuclear weapons a political taboo in NATO. Even today most so-called experts can’t think straight on those issues.

And still, the former generals and other experts don’t grasp how to judge the situation correctly.

In general:

1. The use of any tactical nuke doesn’t immediately result in Armageddon.
2. The use of tactical nukes can militarily at best stabilize a military situation for a short while.
3. The use of any nuclear weapon always has a political motive and goal.
4. Any use of nuclear weapons will have enormous global political consequences that are inherently unpredictable.
5. Milosevic didn’t have nukes. Sanctions could work. Putin does have nukes. General Clark doesn’t know the Art of War requires building a golden bridge. Only then can Putin be forced to do anything.
6. The de-escalating nuke strike is part of the long-standing Russian military doctrine. It only needs a false flag attack by NATO being staged by Putin and the Russian military will most probably simply do what is ordered as will all the nuclear key holders. Unless they wish to join the oligarchs who crossed Putin and went skydiving and worse without parachutes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Art_of_War

The now again to be altered predictions on nukes and Putin due to the successes by Ukraine on the battlefield.

1. Putin is more in danger of being toppled by especially the hawks that want to follow a much harder (nuke) line than he ever was in general.
2. Putin is also more in danger of being toppled by the more dove-like under his peer group who do care a bit more for Russia.
3. Putin is fully aware of this danger yet for him as well this is unpredictable, thus also unpredictable for anyone when Putin feels that he has reached the end of his tether. Then it’s predictable that Putin will have to double down on his enormous gamble or probably die. Desperados who haven’t been given a golden bridge way out will * ALWAYS * double down when cornered. A narcissistic robot doesn’t mind that the whole world comes down with him.
4. Whether Putin can press the button or that the military will then dispose of him, remains to be seen. Probably when Putin is toppled it will be due to heart failure due to a bullet thru the heart. Predictably then followed by a nice State funeral. It is however criminally insane idiocy on the part of NATO to have even unwittingly taken this gamble. Putin * WILL* call Bidens / NATO’s bluff! This should have been clear from the start. I’m the only expert who as far as I’m aware that warned of this scenario we are in right now from the start. Illogical to Putin (and any sane person) that within NATO the will to go nuclear over Ukraine does exist, but the will to even threaten to use air power doesn’t exist because it is deemed too risky because of the nukes. The predictable risk we are in now is far greater than having threatened Putin with NATO air power and building him a golden bridge way out.
5. Due to the recent losses by the Russian army apart from a need to quickly stabilize the front using nukes when a breakthrough ensues especially at the critical water supply for Crimea, or the land route to Crimea from Russia, the most likely nuclear target is no longer the logistical hub Lviv.
6. Now the first option that was no longer an option due to the weather in February comes back into play. A false flag attack by NATO on Kaliningrad will be followed by a small nuke strike on Maasvlakte near Rotterdam Holland. A military target already mentioned by Putin’s Douma cronies. Putin when cornered will bet that Biden will throw in the towel and NATO become neutral. I’m explicitly still saying nothing on whether that will work or not. I’m only predicting that Putin wasn’t bluffing and in this scenario predictably won’t warn again. It’s the only win scenario for Putin when he feels that he’s at the end of his tether. In tunnel vision, it will elude Putin in what could possibly go wrong.
7. Putin is of course hoping at the moment to be able to prevent from being toppled hoping to be able to break the will of the EU by weaponizing the gas supply. The ex-KGB mobsters are still on top of the game and earning more due to the sanctions than they did before. Being pestered by the sanctions only makes mobsters more vengeful. Predictably it won’t make them do what NATO wants.
8. Due to the preoccupation of the USA with Ukraine and Taiwan other dictators in the world are more prone to try to take advantage of the situation. Al the more a rising probability due to the aggravated global economic crises that as history also proves is at the heart of the thermodynamics of war and thus world wars. Especially some silly event in the Balkans or Africa that no one is paying attention to is where WW3 becoming a hot contest between the nuclear powers is most likely.

WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT, HAD NATO FOLLOWED MY ADVICE, THEN:

1. No war in Ukraine.
2. No sanctions and global economic fast meltdown with whopping inflation (for those reasons).
3. No lots of belated serious talk by former NATO generals and the press about Putin maybe using tactical nuclear weapons. Nigh everyone is only now waking up to a danger that was predicted by me clearly from the start.
4. Had NATO given Putin a proper stare down, which will work even better now everyone knows Putin’s forces are a joke compared to NATO apart from the nukes. Of course, provided Putin is given a Golden Bridge way out. It would have worked. With no fighting by NATO at all. This still can work. Putin is near the end of his tether. He desperately wants to negotiate.
5. The test of true NATO & EU political resolve is yet to come this winter. This is what Putin and his mobsters are banking on. A very unwise test for the EU & NATO!
6. (edit) Russia would now no longer have been an individual nuclear power, but a Just state as part of the EU federation. The EU oracle senate would now have been holding the EU’s nuclear keys. Having neutralized all mobsters and future yes-men surrounding any future Russian president. Putin would have now been a modern monarch Tsar. And most ex-KGB mobsters would have gotten a life sentence via a new International Ukraine Tribunal. All done via enforcing an oracle senate test as part of the deal. Russia would have joined NATO. Peace in a day would have been proven to be a piece of cake.

ARTISTIC ADHD LEADERS

Like all ADHD-c4 types, I’m an absolute idiot in not being able to for instance adhere to

“Art. 7-1 Timing versus Art. 7-2 Too Soon & Too Late

Due process is always in due time.” (Quote from my blog post)

According to the current Big Five assessment of psychology, ADHD types score high on the personality trait of openness. They are artistically creative and when coupled with a high IQ score deemed as people who are adept at solving far above average complex problems. Having helicopter view. But also thus people who are seen as strange by a great majority. This is for not going by the book as the large majority of others do. This is completely consistent with the Block Model.

The problem of being too soon is inherent for spotting serious problems long before the rest spot the problem. Being therefore seen as strange and unduly disruptive in the communication of this minority ADHD type leads to them not being treated in an all-inclusive way. Organizing all-inclusiveness of all personality types and also the slow thinkers are already now the task of the Senates in the world. Yet, the 50% + 1 vote system is an inherent mob rule system when complete consistent consensus with these minorities isn’t guaranteed by the political system. Hense humanity in tunnel vision is in the long run always too late. Closing the gate after the horse has bolted.

DEFINITION OF SCIENCE

As a completely consistent consequence of adhering to this law the definition of science is:

The decent systematic search for all the laws of everything and all-inclusive Bildung.

The tyrannical dictate is to be truly authentic and get and keep your personality team in order and cooperate properly via correct communication. Well, organized group think is only now possible for the first time since humanity started a division of labour on a thus inherent social contract with humanity.

The descriptive definition of current Science in Transition is An indecent exclusive peer-reviewed klepto anti-scientific pseudoscience mob rule oligarch clique. Tunnel visioned on gaining and holding authoritative power of deciding what pseudoscience is and thus what is to be and not to be funded.

A clique that can not answer the above questions or even dispute in valid falsification of the above given proven best practice definition of science. The latter is always proper and exact.

Because no one dares to challenge this mighty power oligarch peer group, the oligarchs can get away with murder by simply ignoring anything that doesn’t suit them. So not using the inherent power of any human to force these oligarchs to react properly, makes it so that no one can moan about things going wrong. Most people try to blame others for their shameful inadequacy by letting this happen.

When you follow the given law then that is guaranteed to cure Science in Transition of its criminally insane mental disorder that all outdated religions inherently are.

This Law guarantees a best practice pareto optimum track record on any stated goal.

Of course, this is only true when God / Mother Nature / Spooky Cosmos is so willing. I.e. baring super viruses, super bacteria, super volcanoes, super meteorites, super climate change or other super shit hitting humanity.

JUDGING OTHERS IS BEING TRANSPARENT

Contrary to all nonauthentic people who like to judge others and all sorts of important issues, I can be fully transparent and show my ability to have indeed followed the rules I state proving a far superior track record to any other contenders.

Showing to hold a successful office doesn’t prove that you justifiably hold that office.

Showing that you are extremely rich and wealthy doesn’t prove that having justifiable authority either.

Showing to have honours and diplomas doesn’t prove that either at the moment. Something that can and must be cured.

For instance, taking the Block Model as a fact then the climate scientist physicist professor Giorgio Parisi is a far above average fast thinking authoritarian autistic personality type. This means that he is ace at algebra, average at geometry, and a deep idiot at all paradoxes such as irony, which requires strong intuition on dynamically interactively changing set theory statistics. Such as rheology, and indeed also climate change.

(Edit) Taking the Block Model as a fact then we note that Parisi doesn’t use a clear resounding voice. His use of the English language seeing his age and fields of physics is mostly communicated in English is such that being an ADHD type is highly improbable. Parisi has a talent for abstract logic ruling out that he’s a hysteric. Using number mathematics such as algebra without healthy manic oversight, you get into the realm of occult Escher-type dynamics that are logical in say only one way of looking at it but impossible, when more different angles are to be taken into account. Akin to Newton, a lot of work can be done in this sort of metaphysics. The obvious errors in the climate change discussion are further evidence of this.

Thus a mentally healthy adult got a Nobel Prize in an area where he at best is a mental one to a two-year-old toddler when the Block Model holds as proven best practice.

Proof: Let us take global warming as a fact. And, that this was caused by man due to CO2. And that CO2 works like a thermostate.

When we also take as a fact that uranium-based nuclear energy would provide the least deaths and hardship over say the coming 100000 years, for being off-the-shelf technology that can provide durable reliable most cheap energy for the coming 500 years given current energy usage. Having that will take away that reason for humanity blundering into a world war. In so doing easily provides the lowest possible death rate. Yet the minimum air pollution and taking up space, nuclear power wins hands down.

Then anyone who was ever opposed to nuclear energy has caused and is still causing global warming. Nuclear energy has the lowest CO2 emission. And, all environmental laws making nuclear energy problematic are thus anti-environmental laws. Causing conflict and war and thus enhancing the threat of nuclear war and thus nuclear winter.

Anyway, the since long known physics of CO2 has it that it’s very unlikely the cause of global warming when we take the latter as a fact. If CO2 is indeed the cause then it must have been a trigger effect. Akin when you answered the question if I can cause a snow avalanche in the Alps by me clapping my hands. Indeed possible but unlikely to succeed. And, when the avalanche has started it will not stop the avalanche by clapping more slowly. Climate change is most probably caused by powers outside our human span of control. CO2 simply doesn’t work like a thermostat. The latter is a hard scientific fact known to physics.

The Block Model dictates that 60% of humanity including many justifiably being professors of science literally will go mad and get burnout when they are not sold certainty. By simply having scared the herd and sold the idea of CO2 as a solution that makes our environment under our span of control makes it less scary. Especially nice when being able to scapegoat the older generation for the CO2 problem.

Well, I don’t see our Nobel Prize laureate able to show to have followed proper procedures. He breached article 4 LOH. What are his stated personality type and intelligence on what model? And the same question is to be asked and answered concerning his team. Having got the Nobel Prize doesn’t prove he did that, now does it?

The block model dictates that CO2 was made into a religion. Any scientist would only get funding when talking about climate change and global warming due to CO2. Successfully exploiting fear via well-established know-how in marketing, advertisement, HRM, and sales techniques.

A whole industry of windmills, electric cars, and whatnot has become a very large earning model for many.

Only absolute idiots believe that a computer algorithm with inherent garbage in problem can accurately predict climate change like I accurately predicted via the Block Model what robot dictator Putin and thus Russia would do in Ukraine.

Could I have predicted the weather in Belarus much longer before the attack? Yes, indeed I could of.

Following the given law, I should have had a correct team of meteorologists indeed using computer models to interpret that. I only noticed very belatedly that it was exceptionally wet and muddy in Belarus and Ukraine ruining plans for Putin. Yet even concerning weather prediction is a very dicey affair stating anything more than a few weeks away. Yet our Nobel Prize Laureate has underwritten a dogma made via a computer model that can predict climate change over a whopping period. That is an occult belief. Like Newton mentally healthy autistic people like Parisi go occult. That it’s possible to put correct algebra to the occult doesn’t prove that “you have the mathematics”. With correct algebra, it’s possible to travel back in time. Hell, that is even possible legally via time zones. Only when demanding that all five wis-languages being algorithms of the 4th LOE are completely consistent can you Justly state “to have * all * the mathematics”. (End edit)

Now I’ve indeed used my model to study climate in my Wikipedia-style way. Which is outside my field of expertise. The topic is breathtakingly unfathomably complex. I thus know as a scientific fact that nobody knows what is going on with climate change. Be it global warming or an ice age the coming hundred years uranium-based nuclear power will always work.

It’s hilarious to see how Germany especially has truly botched the power transition problem. Trying to stop all nuclear power, buying gas from Russia via a pipeline. Angela Merkel simply did what the people according to polls wanted. Akin a dog chasing its own tail running circles. Yet without an oracle senate, it would have been impossible for anyone to change this public opinion in the religious belief that lowering CO2 emissions will solve the problem. Even if CO2 emissions caused by man caused the problem. Lowering CO2 emissions will certainly not cure that problem.

THE HUMANOID ROBOTICS

Based on many indipendent observations of Putin registered on video it’s an (always exact) scientificly verifiable fact that a great majority of people especially those who have sufficently studied the Block Model and are teamend up consistent with what that model dictates that:

Putin is to be assessed as an authentic:

Far above average fast thinker. That means that he can optimally solve the on average 10% far above average complex problems, Mother Nature throws at all of us. And that all his talents are affected by this multiplier. The best learners. He’s average at 40% above average complex problems. And an absolute idiot at all below-average complex problems. There he needs help with urgent, critical, or important issues.

Putin is an autistic personality type: best at algebra, average at geometry, and an idiot at all paradoxical problems such as irony but also rheology, human behavior, etc. The latter requires the strong intuitive inspired talent for quickly changing set theory domains each governed by different rules. Putin has a potential photographic memory. He’s a talent for one on one chess. As any president, he needs to be able to more quickly take decisions. That wouldn’t be a problem were he not surrounded by yes-men instead of a correctly formed and trained team. This is true for everyone on serious or urgent issues.

Putin is also an authentic authoritarian type. Especially under the mental pressure of his position of power, Putin will respond out of control with disrespect. Feathers in his arse will keep him calm. Oh, would it indeed be his wet dream to be Tsar Putin I The Great, even if only as a modern monarch?

Putin is also a narcissistic phenotype. More in extreme egoistic tunnel vision. An extreme gambler on the small chance of success however large the opposing chance of it going wrong. Very unfriendly when pressured. Very precise in what he does.

Putin is worse than Maffia capo di tutti capi mobster boss, for ex-KGB. Highly professional and skilled in the tricks and trade of a secret service.

Putin is a Russian politician and hard-core Stalinistic in ruthless efficiency.

Putin’s narcissism makes that he was not ever in his core fully religiously under the hypnotic spell of his Rasputin Dugin. Yet, he more or less has a great hypnotic attractive lure of a greater Slavic empire because of the political success it brought him in the past. That lure is close to the core of what makes Putin tick. And thus that is probably the motive for his crony ex-KGB mobsters to get rid of Dugin. That Slavic dream is bad for their earning models.

Putin is a dictator. So unless disposed of Russia will do what Putin wants. There is no reason at the moment to believe that Putin akin to Stalin doesn’t have a firm grip on power.

Knowing these robotics about Putin it’s not so difficult to guess in a scientific way what will happen given the circumstances.

ENDANGERING OUR DIRTY LITTLE SECRET EARNING MODELS SCARES US

Although still highly taboo and consistent with the 2nd LOE the bell curve is that my valid falsification of the current scientific paradigm published in NWA 2015 conforms to Karl Popper doesn’t even in science change any scientific paradigm. A paradigm shift takes at least seven years according to Thomas Kuhn. I don’t agree with the critique of Martin Cohen for my Block Model makes the process far less hazy. It’s a > 99.9 % probative value with deterministic reasoning to prove causal effect to any statistics involved. Simply hard mathematically to be derived rules of law at play.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradigm_shift

As long as there is no valid counter-proof of the claimed complete consistency all claims are justified in having a probative value of > 99.9% however inaccurately based on extremely little evidence.

The bell curve predicts the learning curve that ensues when fundamental things are even slightly changed. Signs that the peer group is slowly shifting and more and more people quietly taking notice are obvious to me.

A summary of the basics of this post.

IF YOU LIKE TO FACT-CHECK BELOW YOU WILL FIND A SELECTION OF BLOG-POST LINKS WITH THE RELEVANT QUOTES.

EVIDENCE AND PROOF I CORRECTLY PREDICTED WHAT PUTIN WOULD DO ON RECORD NEW YEARS DAY

DON’T LOOK AT UKRAINE & TAIWAN! HAPPY 2022!!

THEN MY POST FEBRUARY 8th

“NATO & EU NEUTRAL or an ENEMY  of  PUTIN?

As a country, you are either neutral or you’re not. By sending military aid and having sanctions NATO becomes the enemy in the eyes of Putin.

An enemy who has been warned by narcissist Putin and with whom negotiations are still ongoing.

****Even though Putin is obviously only still buying time to get everything ready, together with Xi Jinping jumping off after the Olympics.****

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/02/04/world/china-russia-xi-putin-meeting-nato-intl/index.html

As predicted by me previously an ‘axes like’ coalition in which Xi backs Putin against NATO has formed.

 The easy further proof of all this is the idiotic demands such as to have the Baltic states no longer be part of NATO. Putin is obviously buying time AND (!)  signaling that the Baltics are a target! https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/26/us/politics/russia-demands-us-ukraine.html

 These sorts of planned military preparations are an enormous logistical undertaking.  Or Putin must attack sooner when forced by stupidity on the part of NATO.

As long as the buildup of Russia remains faster than the potential enemies, then Putin being a potential excellent chess player, can and thus will, best wait. For then he’s still getting relatively stronger in time.

Also predicted by me earlier was the probable annexation of the already vassal state Belarus. The prelude of this is an “exercise”.  https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/belarusalert/ukraine-faces-mounting-encirclement-as-russian-troops-enter-belarus/“………………….

“WAR IS DECEPTION

This all leads to the obvious conclusion that Putin and our leaders are successfully having all the experts of the Atlantic Council as well, only focus on an attack on Ukraine.  And only from a viewpoint of what “Russia” is going to do and not what Putin is going to do.

Russia’s six scenarios for a new Ukraine invasion

Ukraine faces mounting encirclement as Russian troops enter Belarus

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/belarusalert/ukraine-faces-mounting-encirclement-as-russian-troops-enter-belarus/embed/#?secret=v4qpkbigcI#?secret=wzeZVhA6pN

Of course, Putin is not going to explicitly state what he is actually going to do. Deception is the art of war. ***If you simply take all the indisputable facts I stated, then it is quite obvious why it is that an attack toward the Donbass and furthermore not Kyiv but via vassal state Belarus towards the Baltic states, *** is a quasi-deception forcing Biden to send troops per ship to Europe.

In so doing making all harbors of non-nuclear-weapon states such as we Dutch, legitimate targets in the eyes of a narcissist like Putin. All conform to his established military doctrine.

Using nukes in war towards a political aim.

Being on top of Putin’s shit list is therefore not the place to be.

Especially not with such a tempting target as the uninhabited Maasvlakte harbor in front of Rotterdam. A perfect political first nuclear strike target with little collateral damage. A suicidal and criminally insane gamble that might indeed have Biden throw in the towel.

For we Dutch only can use our (BTW only tactical) nukes when Biden releases their use. 

See the nice effects of a 10KT nuke on the Maasvlakte near Rotterdam in this nice nuke map. https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/

A HIGHLY VOLATILE & UNSTABLE SITUATION

******This all is not to say that Putin will not use special forces to try and grab the political-military leadership in Kyiv. ******* (This prediction indeed happend!!!!)

At least Putin will put as many forces against especially NATO member Lithuania bordering on the Russian  Kaliningrad enclave to fight a route towards that.  Grasping this is at least a bargaining chip that might not have to be surrendered in the envisaged subsequent cease-fire negotiations.   

This is the reason that I predict a quick redeployment towards Lithuania is in the cards before the attacks commence. This redeployment can be disguised by the fact that it is to counter the German troops that are going to be sent to Lithuania. German combat troops on the soil of Mother Russia. Oh dear oh dear.

This all doesn’t mean it can’t kick off any moment playing a scenario by adding forces on the fly. Then probably something in the mind of Putin based on a changed situation made that come about.

***Going nuclear will depend on how the conventional scenario plays out for Putin.*** If he grabs all of the Baltic states and NATO sues for a cease-fire, then Putin might not be forced to go nuclear as long as Biden’s troop reinforcements stay well clear of Europe.  

And only when NATO and the EU  stop the economic sanctions and all military aid to Ukraine.

The wet dream of Putin being restoring all of the territories of the former Soviet Union and breaking up NATO, and getting away with it all without any economic sanctions.

Having to settle for giving the Baltic states back and having EU and NATO act completely as neutral states concerning Ukraine will do for Putin as long as the economic sanctions stop. ****As long as he doesn’t lose face that is.****

***A few days ago the military buildup was stated to be at 100 Russian combat battalions of the estimated 150 such battalions. Being the latter the estimated amount of required troops to grasp entire Ukraine. That level will be reached after the Olympics.

That Russia and Ukraine will end up in a guerrilla-style war nightmare, is then what will probably happen.*** (Well, in the ocupied zones this guerilla-style nightmare has come true.)

And do please mind Putin will give no more prior warning at what he will strike with nukes, as a first strike.

Risk is chance times consequence. We Dutch had better ask ourselves, how much risk we want to take on the cost of such a strike on the Maasvlakte of Rotterdam harbor!

UNDERMINE DETERRENCE =>  WAR = PANDORA’ S BOX =>  NO MORE EXPERTS!“……

FREE OUR LEADERS FROM THEIR FOCUS SLAVERY

UKRAINE YOU CHOSE: WIN-WIN, WIN-LOSE, OR LOSE-LOSE?

**** “It might be that the weather of early spring prevents Putin’s plans from not getting stuck in the mud. Even though the mud as such doesn’t have to fully prevent his ultimate plan. He only needs the pretext to prove that he indeed is going to nuke. Of course, a failed military operation might invoke a military coup. So then he’ll have to drag on negotiations until the mud dries. This is easy due to the NATO build-up he can say that he needs to protect Belarus.” ****

PUTIN’S PLOY

**** “Well, I guess the warm weather meltwater, and rain has changed the plans of Putin.

As the RAND rapport 2019 shows the reason that NATO can’t stop a Russian armored attack on the Baltic states in the first instance even with tactical nuclear weapons is that the tanks can and thus will take a spread-out formation.

The areas of potential mud planes are now too serious for such formations.

The timeframe that was forced upon Putin by Xi did not want it to start before the end of the Olympics.

He has now switched to a cleaver political-legal ploy.

Like the mob, he lets us ourselves come to the conclusion that we’ve been had up until now. Playing it this way he can indeed declare war if the EU and NATO are not forthcoming in what he already has.

And the longer it takes the more he will grab.

He contrary to NATO is prepared to go nuclear over this issue.

In order not to be seen as weak NATO must guarantee the borders of a smaller Ukraine and force a correct legal system on Putin.

Well, our own system is also corrupt. Only less so.

So we including the EU and NATO must have an oracle senate to remedy this.

Ultimately Russia and Ukraine should join NATO and the new EU. With a modern monarch Tsar Putin. The only way out.

Yet probably the EU and NATO will blunder us into a nuclear war and ultimately nuclear winter.

Oh, and BTW for an attack on Ukraine, a spread-out formation isn’t required.

Ukraine had a contract with the US and not with NATO for support after relinquishing her nukes. Well the US is morally bankrupt.” ****